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November 9, 2021
Stocks – AMZN, TSLA, PYPL
Macro – SPY, AUDJPY
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MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS SPY PUTS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks fell today; it was a take’em down Tuesday, lite. The S&P 500 fell 35 basis points, and the Qs fell by around 70 bps. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report and initial jobless claims because Thursday is a bank holiday, which means the bond market is closed, but not the stock market.
Flattening
Today’s PPI data came in as expected, and that sent bond yields lower. Yields are falling over the world, which means the pressure and momentum on US yields will be lower. The 10-Year fell by five bps to close at 1.44%, while the 2-year fell by 2% to 42 bps. That flattened the curve to 1%, and now it is sitting on a key level of support, resulting in the curve flattening down to 80 bps.
It has negative implications for global growth.
Risk
Meanwhile, we are seeing a massive breakdown in risk, with the AUDJPY cross now sitting on a critical support at 83.15 after dropping a massive 94 bps today. If it breaks support, which I think it will, it will fall to around 82.05. Another significant warning signal for stocks.
S&P 500 (SPY)
I am looking for a top here in the S&P 500, with a reversal back to 4,440 on the S&P 500 futures. (Premium RTM Video – RTM: Stocks May Be Facing A Steep Drop)
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla shares fell 12% today and are just above support at $1,000. There is a huge gap that needs to be filled at $909. Gaps tend to get filled more often than not, and I would not be surprised to see that gap filled.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal fell by 10.5% and below that critical support level at $212. The stock is momentarily oversold with an RSI of 22.5. But generally, true bottoms aren’t formed until we see a lower price and a higher low on the RSI. So PayPal may bounce, but I think we will see even lower prices.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon is still flirting with this gap at $3,575, still has been able to break above resistance. I don’t see how Amazon can rally if the SPX turns lower. But whatever, I have been wrong before. I still think it heads to $3,300.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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