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12:20
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEudUVOOVg5YXpmU0E
11:40
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
2
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12:29
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
2
YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEucnppazN0OGg1S3M
November 10, 2021
Stocks – AMD, DIS, NVDA, XOM, NFLX
Macro – SPY, DXY
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – $45/MONTH OR $400/YEAR
MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS SPY PUTS
Stocks dropped today, with the S&P 500 falling by roughly 80 bps, while bond yields rose sharply, and the dollar spiked. The moves came after the CPI report showed that inflation was hotter than expected, while real wages fell. It is not an ideal scenario, especially if wages can’t keep pace with inflation. The market is now pricing in nearly six rate hikes by the end of 2023. Given this, I don’t think the selling is done, and I think this whole rally goes from supernova to dwarf star, with all the gains basically disappearing.
The dollar surged over resistance at 94.60, with it is now potentially on its way to around 96.30.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 fell pretty sharply around 1 PM, which came after the 30-year auction, and around the time of the dollar’s breakout. Additionally, it was around the time that rumors were circulating that Evergrande missed a bond payment. Then later in the day, the news was that Evergrande made the payment, and the market lifted some off of its lows.
Now it isn’t apparent what led to the sell-off today because of these two stories moving around. But it seems clear to me that once the dollar broke out and cleared resistance around 94.60 and took off, the S&P 500 sell-off started to accelerate. As a result, I don’t think the Evergrande payment story is going to reverse the sell-off.
I still happen to think that the S&P 500 is heading lower from here and potentially back to around 4,440 over the very short term.
Disney (DIS)
Disney is getting hit relatively hard after its Disney+ subscriber numbers missed expectations. For this stock right now, it’s all about support at $168. If that holds, it can trade sideways; if its support breaks, there is a gap at $155 that needs filling. I have been in the camp that the gap gets filled.
AMD (AMD)
AMD was smoked today, falling 6% to $139.90. The gamma squeeze appears to be fading, and that means the stock isn’t finished falling yet. I’m still looking for $135.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia also fell 4% on the day, and it too is having a gamma squeeze reversed. Nvidia has a giant gap at $265 that needs to be filled, and I expect that will happen soon.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix has a giant rising wedge pattern going back to 2018, and it looks like the RSI uptrend is pretty close to breaking. A pullback to $580 would leave the stock on the cusp of a significant move lower.
Exxon (XOM)
Finally, Exxon’s stock looks like it may be ready to drop back to $57.50. Not only that, but open interest levels dropped dramatically across several series of calls and expiration dates. I went over this in the midday write-up for RTM members. 2-week free trials have been turned back on; I had turned off trails to clean up a few things on my end. (Premium content – RTM- The Dollar’s Time To Move)
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLCÂ is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Â
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
The Stock Market May Be At Peak Valuation - Advanced Topics
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles June 13, 2025 2:08 PM