November 9, 2021

Stocks – AMZN, TSLA, PYPL

Macro – SPY, AUDJPY

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MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS SPY PUTS

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA

Stocks fell today; it was a take’em down Tuesday, lite. The S&P 500 fell 35 basis points, and the Qs fell by around 70 bps. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report and initial jobless claims because Thursday is a bank holiday, which means the bond market is closed, but not the stock market.

Flattening

Today’s PPI data came in as expected, and that sent bond yields lower. Yields are falling over the world, which means the pressure and momentum on US yields will be lower. The 10-Year fell by five bps to close at 1.44%, while the 2-year fell by 2% to 42 bps. That flattened the curve to 1%, and now it is sitting on a key level of support, resulting in the curve flattening down to 80 bps.

It has negative implications for global growth.

Risk

Meanwhile, we are seeing a massive breakdown in risk, with the AUDJPY cross now sitting on a critical support at 83.15 after dropping a massive 94 bps today. If it breaks support, which I think it will, it will fall to around 82.05. Another significant warning signal for stocks.

S&P 500 (SPY)

I am looking for a top here in the S&P 500, with a reversal back to 4,440 on the S&P 500 futures. (Premium RTM Video – RTM: Stocks May Be Facing A Steep Drop)

 

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla shares fell 12% today and are just above support at $1,000. There is a huge gap that needs to be filled at $909.  Gaps tend to get filled more often than not, and I would not be surprised to see that gap filled.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal fell by 10.5% and below that critical support level at $212. The stock is momentarily oversold with an RSI of 22.5. But generally, true bottoms aren’t formed until we see a lower price and a higher low on the RSI. So PayPal may bounce, but I think we will see even lower prices.

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is still flirting with this gap at $3,575, still has been able to break above resistance. I don’t see how Amazon can rally if the SPX turns lower. But whatever, I have been wrong before. I still think it heads to $3,300.

Mike

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