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April 12, 2019
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Netflix, Disney, Tesla, and Skyworks
Michael Kramer owns IWM Calls
US Trading
- S&P 500 Futures +13.25
- 10-Year Treasury 2.54%
- Oil $64.50
- VIX 12.50
- Dollar Index 96.85
International Trading
- Japan Nikkei +0.73%
- China Shanghai -0.04%
- Hong Kong HSI +0.24%
- South Korea KOSPI +0.41%
- German DAX +0.57%
- UK FTSE +0.41%
Key News:
- Eurozone Industrial Production y/y: -0.3% vs. estimates of -1% and previous of -0.7%
- Disney+ Streaming $6.99/month starting on November 12
- Tesla Model 3 now available via lease
- Chevron to buy Anadarko for $33 billion
International Trading
The South Korea KOSPI continues to grind higher rising to 2,233 and is now firmly above resistance at 2,225.
US Trading
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 is pointing to a higher opening of about 50 basis points higher. That will push the index above resistance at 2,891, and to right around 2,900 at the open. We had been looking for the breakout yesterday, but one day late is fine by me.
Russell (IWM)
The Russell is also pointing to a rise of about 35 points to start the day. It will send the index on a course with resistance at 1,592. My view has been the index eventually makes its way towards 1,710.
Disney (DIS)
Disney is trading higher this morning rising above $120 after it revealed its Disney+ streaming service yesterday for $6.99 per month coming in November. $121.50 to $122 will serve as resistance, and I’d be shocked if the stock is not trading above those prices in after a few weeks.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix is trading lower as a result of the Disney launch, but don’t expect the Disney product to replace Netflix, it won’t. Disney’s service is a niche product with limited content. It is a nice addition to someones streaming universe, but Netflix is still a staple, offering plenty of content, and creating plenty of its own. For some more thoughts, you can read Disney+ Is Here — Get two weeks free.
JPMorgan (JPM)
JPMorgan is rising after it posted better than expected first quarter results. The company reported revenue of $29.1 billion versus estimates of $28.05 billion. Earnings came in at $2.65 per share versus estimates of $2.35 per share.
The stock had been flirting with a resistance yesterday around $106.50, and this morning it is trading above that level to around $109, with $113 acting as its next level of resistance.
If JPMorgan represents what we have in store for the rest of earnings season, then I shall it again, the market has much further to climb because estimates have fallen too far.
All of the big banks are reacting favorably to the news with Citigroup and Bank of America rising too.
Citigroup (C)
Citigroup is rising above resistance this morning at $65.90 and has room to increase to around $70.25.
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[youtube-feed feed=7]Bank of America (BAC)
Bank of America is also breaking out rising above resistance at $29.50.
AMD (AMD)
AMD is trending higher this morning and is likely heading back to resistance at $29.40.
Skyworks (SWKS)
Skyworks is also breaking out to rising above resistance at $88.
-Mike
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.