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5/20/24
#Stocks: $JPM
#Macro: $SPX, #RATES, $VIX
Mike’s Reading The Markets Macro Subscription Service on Seeking Alpha
- RTM: Nvidia Positioning Update
- RTM: Trends Remain In Place
- RTM: IV Crush Helps Lift Stocks Ahead Of OPEX
- RTM: Markets Gear Up For CPI Data
- RTM: Implied Volatility Is Likely To Rise Into CPI
- RTM: Inflation Swaps Moving Higher
- RTM: We Are Not On A Path Back To 2% Inflation
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The S&P 500 finished the day flat as markets braced for Nvidia earnings on Wednesday afternoon. Braced may be an overstatement based on today’s implied volatility levels; the market has all day Wednesday to prepare for Nvidia’s results. Outside of Nvidia moving higher today, it was a dull day, except JPMorgan dropping by more than 4% after Jamie Dimon noted that he may retire sooner than investors had thought.
That sent JPM down, but overall, the shares surged more than 50% off their October lows and nearly came all the way back to that broken trendline. It is not uncommon at all to see a retest of a broken trendline, but for now, that trend line is resistant.
The S&P 500, meanwhile, has also been finding resistance around a trendline of around 5,300 in recent days. The one thing that may come into play here is the VIX opex on Wednesday because if the VIX has stalled out, then the equity market won’t have the juice from declining implied volatility to push higher. After Wednesday and the VIX open, it is a different story.
Right now, Put gamma is built up in the VIX options at the 12 and 13 strike prices, which is one reason we have likely seen the VIX hold on to those levels the past couple of days. It seems that level may hold again tomorrow as well, or we may even see the VIX move up tomorrow.
The VVIX was also higher today for the third day in a row and is moving back to the 80 level. We can watch the VVIX as a signal that sometimes tells us the direction of the VIX index and can even be a leading indicator.
The implied correlation index was up today, with the VIX rising. Something we will continue to monitor.
10-year rates were higher today and have now recovered their move lower following the CPI. Three things could be pushing rates higher at this point: higher copper prices (inflationary), talk by a few Fed officials of a higher neutral rate, and rates in Japan moving higher. The 10-year JGB closed yesterday at its highest level since 2012. Rising rates in Japan will work to lift rates globally as the global anchor for low rates is reset.
Meanwhile, the market is also removing the odds for a November rate cut again, pricing in just 1.06 cuts for November, down from 1.35 on CPI day. So, it is really important not to get overly emotional about what happens to the market following a CPI report. In the end, the market needs the time to digest the information.
Have a good one
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.