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12/17/20
Stocks – ROKU, V, DOCU, SHOP
Macro – SPY
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- Stocks Stall At Resistance – Midday
- APPLE Seller Turns Buyer- Morning Note
- Post-Fed: Stocks Are Not Always The Sharpest Tool In The Shed
- Apple Seeing A Lot Of Call Selling – Morning Note
- Stocks Are Waiting On The Fed
- Stocks Up- But No Changes In Trend
- The Fed Is Likely To Underwhelm The Equity Market
- Options Volume Are Falling, Volatility Is Rising – A Bad Sign?
- Algos Playing Their Usual Games
- The Start Of A Busy Week
- Three Potential Paths For The S&P 500 Over The Short-Term- The Week Ahead
- Stocks Drop With More To Come?
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN V
Stocks were mostly higher on the day, with the S&P 500 rising by 58 bps and the Qs rising by 65 bps.
Overall, it might seem as if the index is “breaking out” it hasn’t yet. The S&P 500 futures, where most of the overnight activity occurs due to options hedging, have not broken out. The S&P 500 futures are still stuck at 3710ish, and it has been a level that has been difficult for the futures to cross. Remember, most of the gains this year have come overnight, so what happens during the day doesn’t matter. The stock market is just a derivative of the options/hedging market.
Perhaps tonight is the night that the futures break out to new highs, but it is where it closes tomorrow afternoon that counts. So again, the momentum indicators are extremely overbought on several levels. One is the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average, which is 85%, again a very high level.
The SKEW index, which is approaching higher levels, suggests increasing tail risks.
Roku (ROKU)
Of course, you have the rampant speculation in stocks, like Roku. The stock went up today on news of HBO Max now being available on the “platform.” It was up nearly 8% at one point, adding about $3.2 billion to its market cap. Now, I’m not a rocket scientist, but how does HBO Max add that much in market cap to Roku. Does anyone even know how much Roku is going to make? I don’t; they don’t tell you. But HBO had total subscriber revenue in 2019 of $5.8 billion. It all makes sense.
DocuSign (DOCU)
DocuSign rose by 4% today; why not. The stock managed to fail again at $247. If it can get over $247, it could probably climb to around $260.
Shopify (SHOP)
It really makes no sense to me why Shopify would rise following news that Amazon may want to build a competing service. You’d think that would worry investors. Not the investors in this stock, they took it up to an all-time high!
Visa (V)
So why does Visa not go up? This stock has been stuck while PayPal and Square have risen to levels that are beyond ridiculous. If Square and PayPal are doing so well, shouldn’t Visa be doing as well, if not better? Don’t Square and PayPal use the Visa, and for that, Mastercard networks to transact. I know it is all about Venmo and Cash App, that it is a lot of market cap for those two small pieces of the pie. It would be great to see Visa trading at $220 before the year was over; how can it not be trading at an all-time high? Everything else is.
-night
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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