12/14/21

STOCKS – AAPL

MACRO – SPY, QQQ

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• RTM- Post FOMC Update
• RTM: It Broke
• The Market Is Waiting For Something To Break
• RTM- The Bond Market Is Dreaming Of A Recession
• RTM- The Market Might Actual Think The Fed Won’t Taper Faster
• RTM: Stocks Stall Below Resistance
• RTM: The Bond Market Warnings Grow Stronger
• RTM Exclusive: Uber’s Stock May Be Ready To Surge

MICHAEL KRAMER AND CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL

Stocks rallied sharply following the Fed announcement, with the VIX collapsing after the event risk was removed. It was a mirror image of what we saw last Tuesday. There was not much that was overly bullish from the Fed, raising their outlook for rates by 60 bps to 90 bps in 2022, while 2023 rose by 60 bps 1.3%. So, that was more hawkish than what Fed Fund Futures were pricing in, with December 2022 at 0.725 bps and 2023 at 1.4% as of today’s close. So the Fed was more hawkish than expected for 2022 and higher than where 2023 before the Fed when they were trading around 1.3%.

S&P 500 (SPY)

But the rally in stocks was purely driven by the move lower in the VIX, as implied volatility levels drop. We see this often these days. It left the S&P 500 trading where it left off on Friday, at 4709.84.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

The Qs rallied more but could not regain as much and remain below crucial resistance at $400.

Apple is a stock that I own, so I am more than happy to see it rise. But the stock managed to retrace to resistance at $179.40. So we can see what happens tomorrow there.

 

That’s all for today.

Mike