Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
STOCKS – FB, ZOOM, SQ, ORCL, PYPL
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
Mike Reading The Markets Premium Content – $35/Month or $300/Year
- Stocks Fill Gaps, Trends Pointing Lower
- STOCKS ARE JUMPING ALL OVER
- Just Fillin’ Gaps Or Something More?
- Uber May See A Steep Decline
- Stocks Are Set To Sink – Morning
- A Massive Week Lies Ahead For The Stock Market
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks advance by about 1.9%, but it was a very volatile trading session, with shares up as much as 3% at one point, then falling back to nearly flat, then surging higher, and finished near the middle. Bullish or bearish? So if I had to choose, I’d say bearish, and I will tell you why, as I noted in the midday commentary.
There now appears to be a downtrend that has formed in the index and the SPY ETF, and the gap around $317 has been filled.
On the Qs, you can also see that we managed to get back to and retest the breakdown of the rising wedge.
Those could be two fairly significant developments for the two indexes, so I’m curious to see how the future traders trade this tonight. Regardless the trend is bearish for now.
Retail sales were better than expected, but we only returned to the March levels on the nominal number, not the percentage. The first chart makes it seem as if retail sales exploded higher.
But when you look with the actual dollar values, it is less than an impressive. I’m wondering hwo I should think about that number. Remember, many states opened at the start of May, yet we only returned to March levels when most states were closed halfway through the month. So strong number or weak number? I’m not sure, but it is something to think on, June will be very telling.
Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle is falling sharply, after the company reported disappointing results, and noted that some customers are postponing their orders. Certainly not a good sign for the stock. The $51 to $52 region appears to be somewhat relevant to the health of this stock. A drop below $51 would indicate a further decline is coming, probably to $48.
Facebook (FB)
I tend to think that Facebook pushes lower from here. I have been saying since the middle of May, and so far, it is yet to happen. Today, I noted some bearish betting in the options, that suggests maybe finally it does go down. A drop to $204 seems to be possible. Here you can read the free article – Facebook’s Bull Run May Be Ending
Square (SQ)
Square manages to just stay in this perfect little trading channel as long as it does not deviate from that channel it is on a path to $102.
PayPal (PYPL)
I’m thinking PayPal may be retesting the breaking of the rising wedge pattern. If that is the case, then a move back to the gap around $129 seems like a reasonable stop.
Zoom (ZOOM)
Maybe Zoomania is slowly fading out, volume levels are not that great, and the stock, like PayPal, has a rising wedge formed, a dip to $198 may be coming.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
An AI Narrative Under Pressure
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles December 12, 2025 1:29 PM