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12/2/21
Stocks – GS, MSFT
Macro – SPY, QQQ, VIX
- RTM- Snapback From Oversold
- RTM: The Fed Is Tapering Into Slowing Growth Narrative Has Arrived
- RTM- Taper Still On And Is Not Going To Sit Well With Stocks
- RTM- Replay Of Live Session
- RTM: Implied Volality Push Higher
- RTM: Financial Conditions Appear To Be Tightening And That’s Bad For Stocks
- RTM: Rates May Now Rise Faster, Sooner
- Tactical Update: It Is Now A Matter Of When The Market Corrects, Not If The Market Correct
- RTM- Risk-Off On OPEX
- RTM Exclusive: Its To Time Buckle-UP
MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS SPY PUTS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT
YouTube Video From 12/2/21
Stocks continued to whip around, with the S&P 500 finishing the day higher by 1.42%. Essentially, the market has gone nowhere since Tuesday. A lot of things could change following the BLS job report tomorrow morning. Based on initial jobless claims, I’d be shocked if the payroll number missed the estimates for 550,000.
But for today, the market just snapped back from some oversold conditions, and I don’t see much else here. The S&P 500 has done nothing despite having massive trading ranges the past two days. I don’t think that will change much tomorrow, with plenty more volatility.
S&P 500 (SPY)
There appears to have been a bear flag that formed in the S&P 500 today, and the index broke through the uptrend of that flag around 3 PM and then retested the trend line again right before the close. That could result in a move back down to 4550 tomorrow. If we break 4500, things could quickly become dicey, as many open gaps do not conclude 4,370. There is a huge gap that still needs to be up at 4,700.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
Also, there is a sort of a pennant pattern in the Qs. I wouldn’t say I like the chart’s look, with the opportunity for a Head And Shoulders pattern and that monster gap down at $360 that needs to be filled.
VIX
Meanwhile, the VIX came down some today, which led to a significant boost in the market. But I’m not sure that VIX will keep coming down, especially if we keep seeing rates rise. The VIX is strongly correlated to bond ratios, and when ratios and spreads are getting large, the VIX tends to go higher.
Goldman (GS)
Goldman had a strong day rising 2.9%, but it has that whole double top thing going on with it, and sitting on support at $375 makes this one vulnerable to a big turn lower.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft doesn’t have the most fantastic look at this point, and it also has a big gap that needs to fill down around $310.
That’s all I have for today.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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