Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
1/7/21
Stocks – AMZN, FB, TSLA, AAPL
Macro – SPY, VIX
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Stocks Enter Bubble Zone
- Midday- As Long As You Know What You Are Up Against
- Morning Note – Waiting For The VIX To Fall
- MIDDAY – Bonds And The Dollar Don’t Seem As Excited As The Equity Market
- Link To Live Broadcast Starting 5 Mins
- Morning Note – Yields Are Rising And Are The Biggest Risk To Equities
- Midday- Stocks And Yields Both Rising
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TESLA AND APPLE
Stocks increased on January 7 by around 1.5% on the S&P 500. The index closed over 3,800 for the first time. The index continues to melt higher, and while technology was out of favor yesterday, today it was in favor, along with everything else.
As it does every day, the index gapped higher from the overnight option-related hedging. It got an extra nudge higher after the better than expected ISM data at 10 am. That was pretty much it. It stopped at 3800, and that was pretty much it.
Clearly, the market is excited about the stimulus that it is now expecting. The only question is how long the bond market will allow this game to continue. Rates on the 10-year rose to around 1.08% today, their highest level since March 20. I continue to think the 10-year will rise and head towards 1.4%. That would be 90 bps higher than where the rate was in August. It certainly should have a negative result on the equity risk premium. I guess we will wait and see.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, if the index can rise and confirm today’s move higher tomorrow, I would project a rally to around 3,950.
VIX
Meanwhile, the VIX refuses to go down. The S&P 500 has risen 100 points since the year has begun, but the VIX is in the same spot. It absolutely makes no sense.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla rose again today, another breakout. I guess it could rise to $855 if you project out the last move.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple got pretty close to my call for $124, dropping to around $126.40. If it can clear $131, then it likely goes back to its highs at $138. It fails, it probably falls below $124.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon can’t decide which way to go; it is just stuck in the middle, around $3,200. The momentum suggests it goes lower. But in this crazy market, who knows.
Facebook (FB)
Facebook also fell to $260 yesterday, and momentum also suggests it goes lower, but again, I have no idea in this market.
Lemonade (LMND)
In a market where Lemonade can go up 27% because the Motley Fool published a bullish article, anything can happen.
Anyway, I don’t know. The market has lost its senses, where nothing matters, and that is extremely dangerous. If you can’t recognize that, I am sorry. Markets do not only go up; they gyrate. As Newton says, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Be careful out there, seriously. For as smart as you might feel today, trust me there will come a time where you will feel the complete opposite. Stay humble, and be grateful for your gains.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Liquidity Tightening And Volatility Patterns Suggest Risk Ahead
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles September 19, 2025 1:26 PM