This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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February 5, 2020
Stocks – ACAD, SWKS, DIS, BA, ROKU
Macro- SPY, Fed, Economy
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD, SWKS, AND DIS
February 13, 2020, Live Streaming Event
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S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks rose sharply on February 5 by over 1.1% to close at 3,334, finishing just below the old all-time highs around 3,337. The question on everyone’s mind, do we move higher, or do we move lower to fill the gap down at 3,300. It seems very difficult to decide, that is for sure, but it really would not surprise me to see the S&P 500 reverse lower to fill that gap. After all, there two giant gaps that needed to be filled, so filling at least one seems reasonable.
The ISM non-manufacturing report came in much better than expected at 55.5 versus a consensus of 55.2. More importantly, it corresponds to a 2.4% GDP growth in the first quarter. Additionally, we also got the ADP jobs data today, which was significantly better than expected at 291,000 versus estimates of 154,000. It leaves the BLS jobs report for us to ponder on Friday morning.
But more interestingly is that the market appears to be pricing in another rate cut, despite the surprisingly healthy economy. You can see how the current fed funds futures deviate from the prospects for July and September.
Disney fell today, which I’m having a tough time understanding because the numbers the company reported on the streaming seemed to be very strong. The market appears to be discounting that — suggesting that the sharp rise in subscribers will not last, or that the surge in subscribers has already been priced in. We will need to watch how the stock trades going to forward to find our answer.
Boeing did well today, rising above the downtrend we have been tracking. It likely indicates the stock increases to around $340. Even the RSI looks a little bit better.
Well, if Disney’s subscriber results weren’t good enough to lift the Disney, then they most certainly weren’t good enough to lift Roku’s, and that is what happened. The stock fell today and still has all the markings of a stock heading lower.
Skyworks has managed to hold support, and as long as it doesn’t get caught up in any negative China-related headlines, I think this one should be ok. The stock managed to hold key support levels at $112.50. Remember it was last week we saw some betting shares would rally.
Perhaps my eyes are deceiving me, but is Acadia breaking out of a falling wedge? It sure looks like it. Clear, $43.50, and I think we start to see some upside price action. Maybe, they will even report fourth quarter results before the first quarter ends. They don’t even a date scheduled yet? How is that even possible?
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