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MONSTER STOCK MARKET COMMENTARY
February 2, 2021
STOCKS – BABA, AMZN, GOOGL, BA
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Earnings Preview: PayPal
- Midday Note: Stocks Are Filling Gaps As Implied Volatility Drops
- Morning Note: Fears Subside For Now
- Earnings Preview: Amazon
- Midday Note: An Uncertain Path Still Lies Ahead
- Morning Note: Volatility Appears To Be Spreading
- Earnings Preview: Alibaba May Fall In The Days Following Results
- T.W.A. – S&P 500 Breaks Major Trend Lines
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN GOOGL
Stocks jumped on February 2, with the S&P 500 climbing around 1.4%. It had been up more but pared some of those gains into the close to finish at 3,826. The index came really close to filling the gap at 3,848, rising to a high on the day of 3,843.
It seems like at this point, the gap is now filled, and now trying to figure out what is next is the tricky part. Because if the rising wedge pattern was truly broken, and the gap is now filled, then the index should reverse and move lower.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
The Qs also filled the gap and reversed lower following the closure. Again, it is in the same position as the S&P.
VIX (VXX)
The VIX has really fallen quickly, which has fuelled this big move up. If the VIX is going to fall further back to say 21 or 22, then the S&P 500 still has some higher to climb. As I noted in the midday note, the VIX collapse is similar to what we saw in November after the election. (Paid subscriber content – Midday Note: Stocks Are Filling Gaps As Implied Volatility Drops – get the first two weeks free to try.)
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon reported better than expected results, despite AWS missing estimates. Jeff Bezos will be moving away from the CEO role as well. What’s surprising is that stock is trading at the upper end of today’s trading range and not falling. I will look more closely later tonight. Amazon hasn’t been able to get above 3,360 for months, and today it managed to close above that price. Whether or not it holds will come squarely down to what the company says on the call. If it holds, perhaps the stock finally broke out of its trading range.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet is way up after reporting the blowout results all around. The stock clearly broke out of a flag pattern and avoided a reversal of a potential head and shoulders. If that is the case, it could head higher towards $2,170.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba reported better results, but they weren’t good enough, and the stock fell by around 4% today. The stock now finds itself on support around $256, with a break of support sending shares lower to $243.
Boeing (BA)
Boeing is very close to making a big move higher if it can clear resistance around $205, triggering a break out of the bull and a push back to $239.
Have a good night.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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