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July 22, 2020
Stocks – ACAD, AMZN, JD, FCX
Macro – QQQ, SPY,
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- Nothing Makes Sense Anymore
- Still Buying Puts On The Markets
- A Decpitive Bull Run – Morning
- Stocks Just Keep Going – Midday
- Bullish Betting Returns To GE
- Waiting On Key Vaccine Data – Morning
- AMD May Be Ready For A 10% Drop
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD
Stocks are drifting lower on July 22 as tensions between the US and China are on the front page over the closure of a Chinese consulate in Houston. The S&P 500 SPY ETF is trading down by about 20 bps, while the QQQ ETF is up 50 bps.
S&P 500 (SPY)
At this point, a decline below 3230 in the S&P 500 futures likely triggers a drop to around 3,150.
Copper
Copper needs to be watched closely as well, as it failed at resistance now two times around $2.99. A decline below the uptrend at $2.90 setups a drop to around $2.80. A break down in copper would be a big negative for the risk-on trade.
Dollar
The dollar continues to weakening, and while the equity market seems unconcerned at this point, we will continue to monitor.
10-Year
The 10-year continues to drift slowly lower and is now trading around 59 basis points. I see a drop below 55 basis points as a negative for the risk-on trade and headwind for the equity market.
JD (JD)
JD.com has broken its uptrend and then failed to recapture it. The most important region to watch for in this stock is at $58.20. A break sets up a further decline to around $49.
Freeport (FCX)
Freeport is flattening and breaking its uptrend. If copper price starts to fall off, then perhaps the stock can fall back to around $12.70.
Tencent/Amazon
Tencent fell by 4% last night and looks like it may fill a gap down to 520HKD. That probably means that Amazon will be due to fall today as well, to around 2950.
Acadia (ACAD)
The sell-off in Acadia yesterday seemed a bit severe and overdone. While the data miss on the depression study was disappointing, Acadia has a bright future with Dementia-related psychosis and potentially negative symptoms of schizophrenia. As long as $44.50 holds, then I think the worst is past, and we can start to rebound back to $48.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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