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Stocks finished higher on the day but gave back some gains by the close. The next couple of days are likely to be tricky, given the BOJ meeting tomorrow night and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Both are important in different ways, but at this point, I believe the Bank of Japan’s meeting will be more significant due to its potential impact on USD/JPY and its recent correlation with the S&P 500.
Part of the S&P 500’s rebound over the past two days has been driven by a weaker yen. Technically, the 149 level has been a key area of support and resistance, and the SPX’s next move may depend on what happens at that level.
The S&P 500 tested the 10-day exponential moving average today and ended the session around that level.
The Nasdaq 100 faced the same point of rejection today as the S&P 500. For both indices, the 10-day exponential moving average has acted as a resistance level during the decline. A break above this moving average would be a bullish signal, at least in the short term, if sustained.
The dollar looks quite weak at this point, appearing ready to break lower and drop below 103, potentially heading back to 100. It has been resting on support and consolidating there for the past few days.
The weaker dollar is impacting commodity prices, with copper surging nearly 2% today. More importantly, it appears to be on its way to $5.10 at some point.
This higher increase in copper appears to be coming when inflationary pressures are already building and continuing. The Empire State Prices Paid Index rose again in March, as noted in today’s report. It likely won’t be long before these higher prices appear in the PPI report.
I will note that this is happening at a time when oil is still trading at a fairly low level. I will also point out that oil still can’t manage to break below that $66 level. Someone clearly doesn’t want oil prices going any lower.
-Mike
Terms by ChatGPT
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) – A type of moving average that gives more weight to recent data points, making it more responsive to price changes.
2.Resistance Level – A price level where an asset struggles to rise above due to selling pressure.
3.USD/JPY – A currency pair representing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen.
4.Consolidating – In financial markets, this refers to an asset trading within a range, showing neither strong upward nor downward momentum.
5.Empire State Prices Paid Index – An economic indicator that measures changes in the prices manufacturers in New York pay for materials, signaling inflation trends.
6.PPI (Producer Price Index) – A measure of the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, often used as an early indicator of inflation.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles September 12, 2025 2:14 PM