Stocks – NVDA, GE, XOM
Macro – SPY, VIX
- I Still Think We Get A Short-Term Retest
- What Does The Dollar Know?
- Stocks Remain Stuck At The High End Of Range
- The Feedback Loop Is Sending Stocks Higher, Vix At Key Support
- A Path To 3800 On The S&P 500 In 2021
- Volality Implodes
- Volatility Collapsing
Some housekeeping items. I am trimming the email list; it is incredibly expensive to maintain an email list through a sending service. So to keep costs under control, I will be removing inactive address.
For whatever reason, Google has decided not to serve ads to my website for the past 2 months. I have no idea why, and there is no one to speak to, so I do not know what is going on. So given that, I now make no revenue from the website and have tremendous cost. Therefore, I will no longer be providing an AM write-up. Sorry. Again, I have no control over this, and as much as I love Alphabet as an investment, their customer service sucks.
I provide an AM commentary that comes with an audio update and a transcript to my subscribers. You are welcome to try the service for the first 2-weeks for free. If you love it, great; if not, not an issue; cancel, I won’t bother you.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, the S&P 500 was flat today, despite solid jobs data. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell, and when I looked at the data, I was expecting to see a big move in the unemployed column going to the, not in the labor force column. I was pleasantly surprised to see that number of employed workers rose dramatically, and the unemployment rate falling was real.
The futures were down about 1% before the day but managed to move higher following the jobs data. Still, the index was stuck below the trend line all day and still suggests a triangle pattern forming in the index. If that is the case, we should continue to see back-and-forth trading over the next few weeks, essentially trading sideways.
The dollar fell again. I really can’t think of a good reason for it to fall. I read somewhere it is because of weaker growth going forward. But then yields should be falling much faster, and they are not. It could just be foreign investors selling dollars due to the uncertainty around the election.
Gold has been rising too, which could result from the dollar falling or a move for safety. But it appears the metal is breaking out, and as long as the dollar stays weak and continues to fall, it is likely heading higher from here.
AMD had a good week; I doubt it last. There is no reason for it last. The company will be issuing billions of dollars worth of stock to buy Xilinx, which will be dilutive to existing shareholders. Maybe the deal will create “value” and be accreditive to earnings. But it doesn’t mean the market will continue to give it lofty that earnings multiple. Good Luck.
AT&T keeps going lower and lower. The stock is kind of at that place of no return. If it drops below $26.10, it would have quite a distance to fall, basically erasing decades worth of value creation. It seems like every time Time Warner does a deal; it doesn’t work out very well. Remember AOL? Probably not.
Yeah, Roku has a market cap of $30 billion.
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