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2/17/2022
STOCKS – ROKU, FB, NVDA, PYPL
MACRO – QQQ
- RTM: The Fed Is Pushing The Market To The Brink
- RTM Rapid Update: Nvidia – Post Earnings
- RTM: Stocks Are Living In A Fantasy World
- RTM: Tighter Financial Condition May Push Stocks Lower
- RTM: Roblox- Post Earnings Thoughts
So another down day in the market. The market was due for this drop; the technical setup was weak at best. I know many people think this is about Russia/Ukraine, but it was right around 1 PM that things took a massive turn for the worse. Was it our 1:15 PM ET seller we talked about the other day, maybe.
At 1 PM, there was a lousy 30-Year TIPS auction, and around the same time, St. Louis Fed Governor Jim Bullard noted ALTHOUGH AN UNSCHEDULED FOMC IS NOT IMMINENT, IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER. That was preceded by WE MAY HAVE TO GO BEYOND THE NEUTRAL RATE TO CONTROL PRICES at 11:30 AM.
But that is up to you to decide.
Nasdaq (QQQ)
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ fell around 3% today after the diamond pattern in the futures finally broke. But ultimately, we are likely heading back to the January lows, if not lower.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia fell about 7.5%, and I don’t think this is finished yet. When I said this stock was likely to face a steep decline, I didn’t mean like in one day. Anyway, the gross margins were worse than expected, and operating expenses are rising. The stock is expensive, and I think, it is still heading back to $207.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku fell 10% and is falling another 20% after hours after reporting weaker revenue and is guiding the first quarter lower. You can’t miss estimates and then guide lower and expect the stock to go higher. The stock is now trading at $115. It could still fall to $102 and fill that gap. It seems like every stock is targeting that April 2020 gap as a spot that needs to be filled.
Facebook (FB)
Facebook has been brutal, and like Roku, it appears to be targeting a giant gap that goes back to April 2020.
PayPal (PYPL)
I thought PayPal might rebound, forget that. If this thing breaks $105, it will head towards that April 2020 gap at $92.60.
Anyway, that’s all
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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