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STOCKS – ZM, SQ, AMZN
MACRO – SPY, VIX
- RTM – Nasdaq EPS Est. Dip
- RTM Exclusive- Merck’s Shares May Be Ready To Surge Between Now And Year-End
- RTM- A Total Lack Of Concern
- RTM- Holding 20
- RTM Tactical Update: The Equity Market’s Response To Jackson Hole Seems Naive
- RTM: Market Internals Are Getting Weaker
- RTM Video: Every Market Sees Its But The US Stock Market
Stocks tried to rally on September 1. Inflow day started strong but faded into the close to end the day flat. The VIX really may have been the key here, there was some decent put volume trading on the S&P 500 that rolled through later in the day, and that seems to give the VIX what it needed to push higher, sinking the S&P 500.
The VIX also found support at our uptrend line that has been working fairly well since the beginning of July. That has really been key and has in the past marked a turning point. If it continues to hold, it would suggest a higher VIX in the days ahead, potentially back to the long-term downtrend around 20.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The chart on the S&P 500 is looking sort of iffy up here, especially if the VIX continues to climb. The pattern on the 10-minute intra-day chart looks kind of double-toppish. Unfortunately, we won’t get confirmation until the index falls below 4520. A natural place to revert to is at the 4,440 gap fill.
Amazon (AMZN)
The 10% run-up in Amazon really appears to be entirely attributable to a gamma squeeze. The signs were there, rising implied vol and call volume, falling skew. It appears the squeeze is now over, and given where the shares are; we should see a reversion lower.
The 3,520 levels appeared to be strong resistance.
Square (SQ)
Square is getting closer and closer to breaking the uptrend. The stock moved up on Monday and gave it all back on Tuesday, and did nothing today. The stock is probably dead money until the Afterpay deal gets completed. They are using the stock as currency, which is dilutive to existing holders since more of Square’s stock will be issued.
Zoom (ZM)
Zoom did not have an impressive day after falling nearly 17% yesterday. All it could do was gain 50 bps today. If that was bounce, the stock has a major problem coming at it. It might get to $230 really soon.
That’s all for today.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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