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April 14, 2021
STOCKS – SHOP, ROKU, XBI, FCX
MACRO – SPY, VVIX
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Midday – Stocks Pullback Heading Into OPEX
- Morning Note- All Signs Point To A Post Opex Hangover
- Midday: Stocks Are Caught In A Apple/Tesla Gamma Trap
- Earnings Preview: The Banks
- Midday: Volatility Rises As Biotech Falters
- Morning Note – Options Market Does Not Support Higher Stock Prices
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks finished the day lower. The move lower shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone given how much they had advance recently. After all, the S&P 500 was overbought and is still trading at the upper end of the range. It seems that there is still a good chance for the index to fall back to the lower end of the trading channel around 3,960, which is what I am still targeting over the very short-term, meaning next one to two weeks.
Meanwhile, the short-term uptrend off the March 25 lows was broken today, which could also signal a short-term change in trend.
Volatility (VVIX)
The VIX Volatility Index (VVIX) continues to creep higher as well, and that is telling us that implied volatility levels are picking up below the surface. We should be watching for a surge in the VIX index in the coming days. This, too, will likely add more pressure to the S&P 500.
Biotech (XBI)
The Biotech ETF (XBI) tried to bounce today, and it did; it just failed at the downtrend, which foretells more selling in the days ahead.
Freeport (FCX)
Freeport looks like it may have broken free of a bull flag pattern, and that likely means it has further to climb from here. The first level to look for is likely to come around $39, but in reality, given the flag pattern’s size, it should go higher than $39. For now, $39 is a good starting point.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku made it back to resistance at $375, and that is where it stopped. The RSI is still trending lower, which suggests this recent rally higher was a dead cat bounce and that the stock is likely to resume a move lower.
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify failed pretty badly today at resistance around $1,185. The fact that the stock failed here seems important, as this is a key level. It could indicate the recent move higher in Shop is over, and the trend lower is ready to resume, pushing shares back to $1085.
That’s all for tonight.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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