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MARCH 24, 2020
STOCKS – AMD, AAPL, ROKU, NKE
MACRO – SPY, VIX, DOLLAR
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stock’s continue to spin in circles, and I know today’s rally was fun and felt good for many of you, but I’m afraid it might not last. Nothing changed since yesterday or the day before that. I know the S&P 500 rose by almost 10% today, yep, and the VIX fell by less than 1%, and that concerns me. It tells me that volatility is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. I can’t imagine that the S&P 500 can rise meaningfully with a VIX above 60.
Another potential problem is that the index failed to break above 2,450 today. That has been a strong level of resistance for the index, and a level we have been trading below since March 18. So we can hope we rally above that level tomorrow, but I don’t remember the last time we put together two days in a row. My biggest concern is that this will result in a failed break out, and we go even lower.
(VIX)
We can see that the VIX got to as low aa 54 today, and that was all it could muster.
Dollar (DXY)
Meanwhile, the dollar remains very strong, and it gives me the sense that things have not eased all that much yet.
AMD (AMD)
AMD rallied sharply up to resistance around $46.25 but failed to rise above that price. It probably heads lower again back to $42.95.
Nike (NKE)
Nike’s shares were surging after hours due to better than expected results, but the company is providing no fiscal fourth quarter guidance. I suspect we will see this from a lot of companies, and that is something that investors are not used too. I don’t know where it goes, but I don’t see why investors would respond favorably to having no visibility.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple shares rose sharply today, too, but stop just short of the downtrend at $250. We can see that the trend is still strong.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku’s stock also stopped at resistance as well at $100. Should the shares fail to rise above that price, they are likely to pull back to around $90.
That’s all; lets hope things can continue tomorrow.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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