This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MARCH 24, 2020
STOCKS – AMD, AAPL, ROKU, NKE
MACRO – SPY, VIX, DOLLAR
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stock’s continue to spin in circles, and I know today’s rally was fun and felt good for many of you, but I’m afraid it might not last. Nothing changed since yesterday or the day before that. I know the S&P 500 rose by almost 10% today, yep, and the VIX fell by less than 1%, and that concerns me. It tells me that volatility is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. I can’t imagine that the S&P 500 can rise meaningfully with a VIX above 60.
Another potential problem is that the index failed to break above 2,450 today. That has been a strong level of resistance for the index, and a level we have been trading below since March 18. So we can hope we rally above that level tomorrow, but I don’t remember the last time we put together two days in a row. My biggest concern is that this will result in a failed break out, and we go even lower.
We can see that the VIX got to as low aa 54 today, and that was all it could muster.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains very strong, and it gives me the sense that things have not eased all that much yet.
AMD rallied sharply up to resistance around $46.25 but failed to rise above that price. It probably heads lower again back to $42.95.
Nike’s shares were surging after hours due to better than expected results, but the company is providing no fiscal fourth quarter guidance. I suspect we will see this from a lot of companies, and that is something that investors are not used too. I don’t know where it goes, but I don’t see why investors would respond favorably to having no visibility.
Apple shares rose sharply today, too, but stop just short of the downtrend at $250. We can see that the trend is still strong.
Roku’s stock also stopped at resistance as well at $100. Should the shares fail to rise above that price, they are likely to pull back to around $90.
That’s all; lets hope things can continue tomorrow.
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