Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
12/21/21
STOCKS – GS
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, ARKK, XLI, XLE
- RTM: What Comes Next
- RTM Exclusive: Block, Formerly Square, May Have Further To Fall
- RTM: Closer To The Beginning, Then The End?
- RTM: Volatility May Really Ramp Up The Week Of December 20
- Ford’s Stock Is Ready To Break Much Lower
- RTM- Post FOMC Update
- RTM: It Broke
- RTM: The Bond Market Warnings Grow Stronger
- RTM Exclusive: Uber’s Stock May Be Ready To Surge
The game between the S&P 500 and the VIX is getting pretty stupid. The VIX gapped higher yesterday, reaching 27, and today it goes back to 21, and you keep having these Vanna squeezes. There was nothing more bullish or bearish today to push the VIX down and stocks up, but that is what is happening. So everyone is again talking about an end-of-year melt-up. That’s fine and all, but this feels more like a game than a bull rally.
It is starting to feel like turbulence, and with many macro factors at play, turbulence makes sense. Essentially, you have a Fed in the middle of shifting monetary policy, which leads to tightening financial conditions, creating all of these violent moves.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 filled the gap at 4,620, but now there is a gap at 4,570 that needs to be filled. The RSI, the MACD, and the advance/decline line haven’t improved at all. The trends are still quite bearish for all three. So outside of the Vanna squeeze today the technicals didn’t improve by very much.
Additionally, the index could not clear the big resistance zone that exists around 4,660. It is looking much more like a retracement of the big move down following the FOMC meeting last week.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
The NASDAQ 100 rallied by 2.25% and closed right at resistance at $389. The MACD and the RSI are still very bearish as well for QQQ. So I really don’t think much has changed as of yet.
ARKK ETF (ARKK)
ARKK may be the most telling of what happened today. Notice how it gapped higher, over resistance at $98.50, gave back all the gains, and closed below resistance at $98.50. It has a weak look to it.
Goldman (GS)
The banks are similar, with Goldman rising, filling the gap at $381.90 and then moving lower into the close.
Industrials (XLI)
I had a double-take because the XLI industrial ETF looks like the Goldman chart.
Energy (XLE)
The XLE did the same exact thing.
Good luck tomorrow.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
CTA And Volatility Funds Poised To Drive Market Pullback
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles October 10, 2025 2:00 PM