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3/29/22
STOCKS – SHOP, TWLO, ROKU
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
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S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks rose again today by 1.2% as the quarter draws near its conclusion. Tomorrow will mark an exciting day, especially with that gap at 4,660 potentially filling, which is also the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. At this point, I would like to see what happens once that gap is filled. To have come this far and for that gap not to be filled. If the gap fills, and there is a sharp reversal Intraday, I think that says a lot about the market and where it goes next.
Can the rally continue to new highs, should the 4,660 resistance break? From a logical standpoint, it should not. There is no more fiscal stimulus, monetary policy has shifted, rates have risen, growth has decelerated, and PEs are too high again.
But stocks tend to trade more with emotion than common sense. However, if real yields keep pushing up, I don’t see how stocks don’t have a very sharp reversal in store for them.
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify has come this far; it might as well fill that gap at $865.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku finally broke that long-term downtrend and has a nice gap to fill up to $146.
Twilio (TWLO)
It took forever, but Twilio finally filled the gap $121.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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