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#STOCKS – $CAT, $IBM
#MACRO – $SPY, $VIX, $VVIX, $DIA
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Stocks finished the day higher, with the S&P 500 rising by about 60 bps. The Fed minutes were not dovish, not if you got the point of them, which was that the terminal rate would be higher than previously thought. The pace of the hike probably doesn’t matter much because if the Fed wants rates to be at 5%, that is likely where they will be in early 2023. A 50-bps rate hike would get us 4.5% by December and another 50 by January. The question is whether the rate will continue to push higher from there and what that means for Treasury rates.
If the Fed is going to leave rates at 5% for the next year, then over time, I would think the 2-year rate would rise to around that level to reflect that expectation. Whether the Fed leaves rates at 5% for all of 2023 isn’t the question. The question is if the Fed can make the market believe it will.
The need is to keep financial conditions easing, and I suspect they are not ready to let that happen.
S&P 500 (SPY)
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The S&P 500 closed at the highs seen on November 15, and I don’t think that is enough to change anything at this point. It still looks like a corrective wave, which looks like a double-zigzag. That is hitting up against a 61.8% retracement of the August highs and a 78.6% extension of the Oct lows.
Additionally, the VVIX had a big move higher today for the second day in a row, and while two days in a row are not a trend, it is interesting as the VIX index declines.
The VIX to VVIX ratio fell sharply today and below its lower Bollinger band. This year, every time that happened, it coincided with the S&P 500 topping. It is an observation.
Additionally, the VIX spot minus the VIX 3-month generic futures contract fell to -5.1 today. That also has been historically associated with market tops this year as well.
Additionally, we saw the SKEW index pop higher, indicating that traders are suddenly looking for tail risk protection.
Again, these aren’t the makings of a market getting ready to move significantly higher. These remain markings of a market starting to position itself for higher volatility. Will any of these observations call the exact moment of a top no? But they can tell us what is happening beneath the surface and what traders think about and do. After all, the market likes to think about the second-derivative trade, and the second derivative of selling volatility is buying volatility. Plus, this is a holiday week, and the de facto trade into a holiday is to sell volatility as time value decays.
IBM finished the day lower, one of the stocks that helped push the Dow’s outperformance and remains worth watching. The stock rose today to the highest level price since February 2020. It is kind of ironic, in a way. As most stocks fall to their February 2020 levels, IBM is still recovering from the covid sell-off.
Caterpillar also seems interesting, as its RSI is trending lower and has formed what could be a short-term double top. The stock hit resistance again today at its April highs. Furthermore, it is not so much to figure out where this is going, but what signals it is sending.
QQQ to DIA
What is interesting is when you do a ratio of the QQQ to DIA. It is evident when looking at this ratio that money is exiting the higher-growth parts of the market and going back into the more traditional parts. The parts of the market were left behind over the past two years. Of course, the question is where it stops and if this is just a return to the longer-term trend line.
Otherwise, this may be some proxy trade on bond yields. Not sure.
Have a happy Thanksgiving!
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance LP. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Past performance of an index is not an indication or guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index may be available through investable instruments based on that index. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.