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#Stocks – $NKE
#Macro – $SPX, $VIX
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Stocks finished the day higher by around 1%, rebounding some from yesterday’s sharp sell-off; this made today an inside day. We have often seen inside days when the day following a big move is inside the previous day’s candle. In the July top, the S&P 500 stayed inside the engulfing candle of July 27 for three days before breaking lower. We also saw an inside day on December 7, which led to the continuation of the rally.
This tells us that today was more of a pause day after yesterday’s very sharp and sudden sell-off. However, the actual setup looks fairly negative from the standpoint that we had this big sell-off on Wednesday, and all the index did was retrace 61.8% of the decline thus far. Additionally, there was a big move lower into the close on Wednesday, with a gap higher this morning; those types of gaps tend to get filled quickly. Of course, it doesn’t have to, but in my experience, it usually takes a day or two.
Today, we got the GDP revisions, and it was really surprising to see such large revisions coming through and revised downward, while jobless claims were also still very low. Still, the 10-year rate rose today, not by much, but enough to catch my attention with big downward revisions to GDP. Overall, GDP at 4.9% is still strong but down from 5.2%.
More important is that the overall trend in the economic data over the past few weeks supports a pretty healthy 4Q real GDP growth rate, which supports higher rates from the back of the curve. So, a 10-year moving back above 4% seems possible over the near term.
Additionally, the yield curve is getting close to steepening again, as the 10/2 shows signs of positive momentum and the potential to break above a downtrend. What is amazing is how closely the VIX has been trading with the 10/2 spread, and if the 10/2 spreads breaks to the upside and start to rise, it would suggest a VIX moving higher.
Nike reported results tonight and beat on earnings but missed on revenue. More importantly, the company is looking to cut costs over the next three years, as it sees softer revenue in the second half of the year. It sounds like Nike will let go of workers, and they will see a charge in the third quarter.
The stock hasn’t done very much; while it is up off the lows, it is still well below the highs seen in April. A move back to the lower end of the range can’t be ruled out, especially if the sales are forecast to come in lower than expected.
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.