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October 5, 2021
Stocks – AAPL, SQ, AMZN
Macro – SPY, QQQ, VIX
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – $45/MONTH OR $400/YEAR
- RTM- Watching Your Tail
- RTM Exclusive: Intel’s Stock Is Far From Cheap And May Head Lower
- RTM – The Selling May Continue For Some Time Longer
- Merck’s Call Buyers Return
- Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower
- RTM- Earnings Revisions Are Beginning To Turn Negative
- Micron May Head Lower Amid Falling Memory Prices
- Stocks Reach An Inflection Point
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Stocks rose today by 1.05%, gaining back some of yesterday’s decline. The index traded as high as 4,369 but fell roughly 50 bps in the final 45 minutes. This coincided with the VIX pushing higher, after finding support around 21 once again. It seems pretty clear that as long as the as the S&P 500 continues moving on a daily basis between 1 and 1.5%, the VIX is going to find it hard to break meaningfully lower. It seems as if today’s rally was inspired by volatility selling, nearly an identical but inverse version of yesterday’s trading session.
VIX (VIX)
But what is notably different is the highs in the S&P 500 continue to be lower, and the lows are getting lower for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the VIX is pretty steady in this 21 to 24 region. The significant risk here is a spike in the VIX above 24, which would be a de-risking event for the equity market.
S&P 500 (SPY)
It looks like the S&P 500 filled yesterday’s gap lower and hit resistance at 4,365. Now it seems like we have a gap to fill tomorrow at 4,305. Today’s pattern seems incredibly similar to the one on September 23 (see the “2”), with the same gap higher and widening wedge/diamond pattern. It suggests a big drop back to 4,300.
Nasdaq (QQQ)
I was convinced this morning there was a bear flag in the NASDAQ 100 Futures, which turned out, for now at least, to be wrong. It still looks like the bear flag is there, but with a throw-over for now, sucking buyers into the market. We will see if it falls tomorrow back through the lower end of the flag. If so, we should see prices below 14,600.
Square (SQ)
Square rebounded sharply today rising by more than 4%, but all it seemed to accomplish was filling the gap from yesterday and then returned to its previous trend which was lower.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon also rebounded today, but it was a fairly weak bounce, regaining only part of yesterday’s losses finishing well off its highs. It appears there is a pretty well defined downtrend in the chart with the $3,200 support level still the major inflection point.
Apple (AAPL)
Apple was no different from both Square and Amazon. With a clear trend lower still in place and the appearance of only a gap fill being completed. The trend toward $130 still seems to be well intact.
That’s all I have for today. We will see what tomorrow brings.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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