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MARCH 31, 2021
STOCKS – DIS, NKE, SQ
MACRO – SPY,
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Midday: To Rotate Or Not To Rotate, That Is The Question
- Morning Note – Quarter End
- MIDDAY: The Trading Range For The S&P 500 Is Near Its End One-Way Or Another
- Options Trades Suggest Micron Plunges Following Results
- Morning Note: Gold Says No Inflation
- Midday- Defensives Lead S&P 500
It was a buyers market on March 31, quite literally, with sellers absent until the final 30 minutes. Volumes across the market were very light, with the Qs and S&P e-minis trading with volumes well below the norm. There was quite literally an absence of sellers. Once the sellers showed up at the end of the day, the S&P 500 and Q dropped about 50 bps, with the S&P 500 giving-up more than half of its gains, rather fast, due to a massive $5.5 billion sell imbalance on the closing cross. It seemed the sellers were waiting for the end of the day.
The first day of the month has been a good one for equities since November, and except for January, every month’s first day has seen a rally. Tomorrow could be different for a few reasons: first, because we get the ISM data at 10 AM, and second because the market is closed on Friday, but the BLS job report will still be released.
A potential breakdown in the S&P 500 isn’t dead. The index did hit the upper trend line today, and that is where it failed. At this point, we could incur a few extra days of sideways trading if these levels hold or trade higher. However, the rising trendline off the March 2020 lows is the index’s biggest threat.
Square (SQ)
It was a good day for Square, but not good enough. The stock stalled and failed at resistance on the downtrend. The RSI still looks decent, so maybe the downtrend will lose.
Disney (DIS)
Disney fell through the uptrend, and now it sits on support at $184.50. A break of support would send it down to $158. The RSI has been trending lower for a long-time and confirms a lower pattern.
Nike (NKE)
Nike has struggled around the $145 level for a while. It nearly broke support at $131 but managed to snap back quickly. Probably suggesting the stock heads higher and test $145 one more time; we should know once it reaches $137.
Ok, well that’s all. There may not be another write-up until Monday. I will try before, but I am really looking forward to doing as little thinking as possible in the next few days.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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