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Stocks Rise on November 4 As Risk Sentiment Turns Bearish

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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November 4, 2021

Stocks – NVDA, PYPL, SQ, ROKU

Macro – SPY, QQQ, AUDJPY, VXN

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Thank goodness the market still has Nvidia and Tesla. They are about the only stocks holding things together. This market has gotten so stupid. Wells Fargo raised Nvidia’s price target today to $320 from $245, so the market decided, let’s take it there today. So they ran the stock up to $313, more than 17%, with it closing up 12%.

The S&P 500 finished the day up 42 bps, with the RSI now up to 75.

Meanwhile, the Qs are going vertical, with an RSI that is now over 78. If this isn’t an image of euphoria, then I’m not sure what one is then. It certainly looks a lot like that rally into September 2020 or maybe that run-up into January 2018. On top of that, we are above the upper Bollinger band, so we should be at a point where the Qs drop the other way. Like literally at any moment.

The VXN continues to trend higher as well, and this is the same formula witnessed at the end of the September 2020 rally before it popped.

Meanwhile, the AUDJPY currency pair has reversed the other way, indicating that risk sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish.

Square is falling by nearly 5% after reporting results tonight. What can I say, another overvalued stock that trades with a valuation it doesn’t deserve. I had talked about it for a long time, and it isn’t worth repeating at this point. The handwriting was on the wall when they used their inflated stock price to buy Affirm. If it drops below $230, it goes all the way down to $200.

PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal will report results next week, and this stock keeps dropping, and for good reasons. At this point, $230 becomes resistance and $213 support.

Roku managed to close at $289, which is support. I think it will cut right through support and starting the next leg lower to $228, once the Nasdaq 100 pops, which should literally happen at any moment now.

-Mike

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