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12/7/21
STOCKS – GM, BA, GS
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, RSP
- RTM: The Bond Market Warnings Grow Stronger
- RTM Exclusive: Uber’s Stock May Be Ready To Surge
- RTM: Stocks Rally, As Fed Fund Futures Price First Hike In May
- RTM: Global Market Deleveraging Event Is On The Horizon As Market Prepares For Faster Fed Taper
- RTM- Market Has Woken Up To The Reality
- RTM- Snapback From Oversold
- RTM: The Fed Is Tapering Into Slowing Growth Narrative Has Arrived
- RTM- Taper Still On And Is Not Going To Sit Well With Stocks
- RTM- Replay Of Live Session
Stocks jumped again on December 7 as the VIX fell back to 21.9. This type of price action coupled with implied volatility move lower suggests a short-covering rally from oversold conditions. The move lower in the VIX means that traders were likely closing out put positions which led to market makers buying S&P 500 futures.
But I won’t expect the VIX to drop much more from these levels. The front-end of the term structure fell sharply, the rest of the VIX structure moved down less. Suggesting the market is still anticipating higher volatility in the future.
The volatility dump helped the S&P 500 to fill the gap at around the 4,695 area finally, we had spoken about in the past. The pattern today looks a lot like the pattern from November 29 and a few patterns we saw back in September. Most of the time, we have seen the S&P 500 give back the gains and fill the gap at lower levels, which would be around 4,600, with this type of pattern.
Nasdaq (QQQ)
I have been working on something new the last few “weeks,” and I thought I’d try it out tonight. It has worked reasonably well in the Asian markets, so I will give it a shot. The box in the QQQs suggests the ETF falls back to and fills the gap at $386. If it works, we will see.
S&P EW (RSP)
The gap in the RSP also filled the gap today. The ETF tried to take out the gap but was unable to. The RSP was very sold, falling below 30 on the RSI and the Bollinger band.
Goldman (GS)
Goldman also filled the gap today but could not push beyond it. The trend here remains bearish at this point.
GM (GM)
The gap in GM was also filled today, with a lower trend still in place.
Boeing (BA)
The gap in Boeing was also filled today, with a solid downtrend still in place.
That’s all today.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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