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9/19/23
Stocks & ETF – $HYG, $ARM
Macro – $SPX, $NDX, 10-Yr, #FED
- RTM: Everything Appears To Be Positioned To Move
- RTM: Toast
- RTM: Bonds Embrace Higher For Longer
- RTM Options Alert: Exxon May Be Heading To All-Time High
- RTM: Live FOMC ZOOM Session On Wed. Starting At 1:45 PM ET
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As for market news, the stock market declined today by approximately 25 basis points, coinciding with a rise in rates on the 5 and 10-year Treasuries to their highest levels since 2007. With the Fed meeting scheduled for tomorrow, the bond market is signaling that rates will likely remain high for an extended period. This is further evidenced by the Fed Fund Futures, which suggest that rates are expected to stay above 4% through 2028. I anticipate that tomorrow’s dot plots will echo a similar sentiment.
Fed Fund futures for December 2024 and 2025 show rates of 4.7% and 4.24%, respectively, which are up massively over the past couple of months. I would expect the Summary of Economic Projections tomorrow to reflect 2024 and 2025 Fed Funds rate similar to those value, if not even slightly higher.
Meanwhile, just about the entire real yield curve is above 2% out to 30-years, and if we assume a targetted inflation rate of 2%, then it would imply that nominal rates stay around 4% for a very long time.
However, the narrow spread between the NASDAQ 100 earnings yield and the 10-year real yield indicates that the equity market is not expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. Rather, it suggests that the market anticipates the Fed will move to cut rates aggressively in the near future.
This implies that the spread between the NASDAQ 100 earnings yield and the 10-year TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) must widen. For this to happen, the NASDAQ 100 earnings yield must begin to rise in parallel with both nominal and real yields. Additionally, we’ve observed that since the end of July, the NASDAQ 100 earnings yield has been increasing alongside the 10-year TIP. Additionally, it appears the NASDAQ earning yield may be breaking out of a bull pennant, suggesting that the earnings yield of the NASDAQ 100 may continue to rise further, along with the 10-year real yield.
S&P 500 (SPX)
Today, the S&P 500 declined to a support level of around 4,420, which led to a bounce in the index. The “put wall” for the S&P 500 is also situated at 4,400, providing additional support. For the S&P 500 to break lower, as I anticipate, we would need to see the put wall start to move downward. Nevertheless, I still believe that a diamond reversal pattern has formed, which likely indicates a return to levels below 4,200.
Oil
Today, oil prices surged into the resistance zone between $92 and $93 before experiencing a sharp reversal. This zone represents significant resistance, and a move above this level could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices back towards $97. However, given oil’s recent strong performance, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it plateau or pause at these levels.
10-Year Rate
Additionally, today the 10-year rate broke above a resistance level, closing at its highest point since 2007 at 4.37%. At this juncture, a further climb seems plausible, perhaps even to 4.7% over time, particularly if the bond market continues to entertain the idea of a sustained 4% nominal rate.
iShares iBoxx High Yield (HYG)
Meanwhile, the HYG has been in a consolidation phase for several months, and it appears that this phase is nearing its conclusion. Recently, I’ve observed some bearish options activity in the HYG. This suggests that if the consolidation resolves to the downside, we could see widening credit spreads. (You can read more here: RTM Options Alert: The HYG May Be Nearing A Breaking Point)
ARM (ARM)
Finally, ARM Holdings, which went public last week and was priced at $51, has seen a sharp decline in its stock price over the past few days. Currently trading at $55, down significantly from its high of $69, this could serve as a significant sentiment indicator. If the stock breaks below its IPO price of $51, it would strongly indicate that the deal was overpriced. This could lead to further declines if investors losing money from the offering decide to exit their positions, making $51 very important to watch.
Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.