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1/11/21
Stocks – TSLA, AMZN, SQ, FB
Macro – SPY, TLT, BTC
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- RTM Option Analysis – Zoom Faces Further Losses
- Midday – Is Something Changing?
- Morning Note – Risk Turns Off As Bitcoin Gets Crushed
- T.W.A. – Gamma Speculative Squeeze May Push Stocks Higher
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks fell on Monday as risk-off was the focus for the day, with the S&P 500 falling by around 65 bps to close at roughly 3,800. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 QQQ fell by around 1.3% on the day.
Bitcoin (BTC)
The move lower came as yields continued to push higher, and the dollar index rose—this lead to a move lower in Bitcoin and risk assets like copper. The move lower in Bitcoin should not surprise anyone, given how much it has run in recent weeks. The crypto had hit a high of about 41,000 on January 8; it touched a low around 30,000 today, a sharp decline.
Bitcoin, if anything, represents an element of the risk sentiment of the market. Risk has, at least for now, turned off.
South Korea (EWY)
It wasn’t only Bitcoin that fell sharply. Overnight the South Korean Kospi, which has been one of the hottest indexes anywhere in the world, had a massive intraday reversal. The index had been up nearly 3.5%, only to give back all of those gains and finish the day down. The index has climbed by more than 40% just since November 1.
S&P 500 (SPY)
For now, the S&P 500 has maintained its trend by holding on to support above 3,790. A break of support likely sends it lower to the bottom trend line near 3,700.
US 10-Year (TLT)
The US 10-Year rose to around 1.14% today, and the next area of resistance comes around 1.2%, but it really seems to be much higher, around 1.4%.
Tesla (TSLA)
To no surprise, Tesla fell sharply today, especially given how much it was up last week and everything I discussed in the video on Sunday. The stock has several gaps to fill, and it would not surprise me to see it drop back to $730.
Square (SQ)
Square dropped by around 6% today, and I’m surprised it wasn’t down more given its ties to Bitcoin. A drop below $216 could be problematic, as it would likely mark the formation of a double top pattern, a bearish pattern. So we will see if $216 holds tomorrow.
Facebook (FB)
Facebook fell sharply today through support at $259. The next level of support may not come until the 200-day moving average around $246, but $241.40 seems more likely.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon fell by 2% this today, dropping to $3,115. Perhaps today’s trading marks the break in the action and finally pushes the stock lower towards $2,870.
Take care
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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