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12/8/21
STOCKS – C, ZM, ROKU
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, AUDJPY
- RTM: Stocks Stall Below Resistance
- RTM: The Bond Market Warnings Grow Stronger
- RTM Exclusive: Uber’s Stock May Be Ready To Surge
- RTM: Stocks Rally, As Fed Fund Futures Price First Hike In May
- RTM: Global Market Deleveraging Event Is On The Horizon As Market Prepares For Faster Fed Taper
- RTM- Market Has Woken Up To The Reality
- RTM- Snapback From Oversold
- RTM: The Fed Is Tapering Into Slowing Growth Narrative Has Arrived
- RTM- Taper Still On And Is Not Going To Sit Well With Stocks
- RTM- Replay Of Live Session
It was a super dull day, with the VIX closing below 20. With a big volatility melt yesterday, the S&P 500 struggled to get its footing today. Essentially, the index has been churning around this 4700 level since the beginning of November.
The gap from November 26 is now completely sealed, and the S&P 500 briefly moved above that resistance level but was unable to close there. Interestingly, the index rose to 4705.06, with just 10 minutes left in the day, but finished at 4701.22. I mention this because the old closing high was 4704.55 on November 18, and it closed at 4701.45 on November 24. The previous high was back on November 8 at 4701.69.
I bring this up because the big rally over the last three days has left the index just shy of a new high, but more importantly, just shy of each of the previous highs. It also would give us a pretty near-perfect triple top in the S&P 500 if we should reverse lower from here. It is a big IF, and there is no doubt in mind if I detect something so small and minute, the algo’s have already done the same.
There is also a right-angled descending broadening wedge pattern. The data is pretty mixed on what this means as to whether it is considered a bullish or bearish pattern. I have minimal experience with them myself, so there is a lot of guesswork on my part here. But I counted the touchpoints from one side to the other and based on the number of touches from high to low and back; it works out that the most recent touchpoint was an “E,” which would also support the triple top pattern narrative above—suggesting a move down. Nothing would be confirmed even if we dropped tomorrow until we took out the most recent lows around 4,500. So, for now, we can wait and see.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
The Qs did not fill the gap today, which I was surprised by. If it doesn’t start to fill tomorrow, I would be concerned; it is not going to fill anytime soon. We might want to also consider a head and shoulder pattern here.
AUDJPY
The AUDJPY fx pair has also been strong recently, but it is up against the 23.6% Fib trend, which has offered resistance. I would currency cross to turn lower and back below 80.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku had a strong day today and is about halfway back to $285. I expect that will continue to push towards that price.
Zoom (ZM)
The gap for Zoom is now filled, and the stock is now completely oversold. It probably has one more push higher over the short-term on its ultimate path lower, with a stop at $230.
Citigroup (C)
Citigroup said its trading revenue would be flat or down from the fourth quarter of 2019 at today’s Goldman conference. The stock is now sitting on support at $62.50. If that support level breaks, it could fall to around $58.65.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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