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STOCKS – AMZN, NVDA, ZM, MSFT, NFLX
MACRO – SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT
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Stocks are rising today after Moderna announced phase 1 results for the coronavirus showed an immune response. It is basically the same information and the reason we rallied about a month ago. The data is updated, and expands beyond the eight initial patients, to all 45.
S&P 500 (SPY)
So at this point, the futures are pointing higher and are now challenging the highs of Monday and June 8. So, it is simple if the market breaks out, it can rise to around 3312 on the ES.
10-Year
The bond market is not nearly as excited on the Moderna news, with yields that are stuck around 63 bps.
Copper
Copper is not that excited either.
I guess what I am saying, don’t be surprised if some of the enthusiasm wears off.
Zoom (ZM)
With a vaccine, we certainly won’t need to be using zoom so much anymore, so why isn’t this stock down even more? Perhaps a pullback to $227?
Amazon (AMZN)
We certainly won’t need to order as much from Amazon, because we will all be able to go out again. Why shouldn’t it fall back to $2,460?
Netflix (NFLX)
We certainly won’t be binge-watching anymore, and that means Netflix could quickly go back to $450.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Companies probably can pare back on their data center spending too, and that wouldn’t be so good for Nvidia. Maybe shares could fall back to $345.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Probably wouldn’t be good for Microsoft either, with the potential to go back to $187.
Anyway, pointing being is that a Vaccine would very much be welcomed, trust me. Living in NY over the past five months, which has felt like 50 years, has been brutal. There is nothing more I could ask for is for life to return to normal and for my kids to go back to school, and be able to play outside with their friends, and for me to eat out again, or walk down the street without a mask.
But just remember many of the high flying stocks that have gone up due to the virus, will need to be adjusted lower, and if all of these stocks are the largest among the market, what does that do to the broader indexes.
Think about it.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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