This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS – AMZN, NVDA, ZM, MSFT, NFLX
MACRO – SPY
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Stocks are rising today after Moderna announced phase 1 results for the coronavirus showed an immune response. It is basically the same information and the reason we rallied about a month ago. The data is updated, and expands beyond the eight initial patients, to all 45.
S&P 500 (SPY)
So at this point, the futures are pointing higher and are now challenging the highs of Monday and June 8. So, it is simple if the market breaks out, it can rise to around 3312 on the ES.
The bond market is not nearly as excited on the Moderna news, with yields that are stuck around 63 bps.
Copper is not that excited either.
I guess what I am saying, don’t be surprised if some of the enthusiasm wears off.
With a vaccine, we certainly won’t need to be using zoom so much anymore, so why isn’t this stock down even more? Perhaps a pullback to $227?
We certainly won’t need to order as much from Amazon, because we will all be able to go out again. Why shouldn’t it fall back to $2,460?
We certainly won’t be binge-watching anymore, and that means Netflix could quickly go back to $450.
Companies probably can pare back on their data center spending too, and that wouldn’t be so good for Nvidia. Maybe shares could fall back to $345.
Probably wouldn’t be good for Microsoft either, with the potential to go back to $187.
Anyway, pointing being is that a Vaccine would very much be welcomed, trust me. Living in NY over the past five months, which has felt like 50 years, has been brutal. There is nothing more I could ask for is for life to return to normal and for my kids to go back to school, and be able to play outside with their friends, and for me to eat out again, or walk down the street without a mask.
But just remember many of the high flying stocks that have gone up due to the virus, will need to be adjusted lower, and if all of these stocks are the largest among the market, what does that do to the broader indexes.
Think about it.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.