This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS – JPM, NVDA, AMD
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
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- Stocks Turn Eurphoic- Midday
- Bearish Betting Persist For NVIDIA
- Gap Higher, Then Fill? – Morning Commentary
- NASDAQ IS RIPE FOR A SIZEABLE DROP – WEEK AHEAD
- JPM May Jump As Much As 10% Followings Its Quarterly Results
- Live Webinar Will Be July 30
- EPS Estimates Continue To Slide
- The Worst May Be Yet To Come
Stocks are trying to rebound a bit, but are struggling to do so with the S&P 500 trading higher by roughly 45 bps. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 Qs ETF is trading higher by about 25 bps. At this point, the QQQs are the group to watch as it fell the hardest yesterday, and it is the most stretched on a technical basis. So this is the index that has the most at risk, while the giant weights of the big 6, spill into the S&P 500. So if the Qs can’t get their act together today, then the S&P 500 will suffer as well, regardless of how bank results are.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Again, as I have said before, the Qs are at the upper end of the trading channel, and usually, that has led to reversal to the lower end of the channel. Now is it possible that today we rebound some and retest the upper bound of the trading channel around $265, sure? Does it mean we are out of the woods, nope. Premium content – NASDAQ IS RIPE FOR A SIZEABLE DROP – WEEK AHEAD
S&P 500 (SPY)
For now, the S&P 500 futures are holding support at 3,145. Remember, this region had been a healthy level of resistance. To this point, it has been holding as a strong level of support. I would think that should offer some support, but a break of that support level quickly sends the futures lower to 3,115.
Copper prices probably still have some further to fall, potentially to around back to $2.82. Probably not good for Freeport or the material names.
JPMorgan reported better than expected quarterly results, with the revenue and earnings coming in much better than expected. However, loan loss provision came in much higher than expected at $10.5 billion versus estimates of $8.3 billion. Additionally, the company suspended its buyback program for the third quarter. The stock is jumping following results at the moment, breaking above resistance around $97.70, and pushing up towards $100. Remember, I noted that we were seeing bullish options betting before results, suggesting a jump to around $104. Premium content – JPM May Jump As Much As 10% Followings Its Quarterly Results
Cowen raised its price target on Nvidia to $475 from $410. Again, I have seen a bunch of bearish betting in this stock. Meanwhile, a break of support at $400 sends the stock lower to $380. Premium content – Bearish Betting Persist For NVIDIA
Meanwhile, Cowen also upgraded AMD to $65 from $60. This stock has been incredibly tough to figure out; it seems to just bounce around with no clear path. The RSI continues to fall, which suggests to me that the stock either continues to consolidate sideways or drift lower.
Have a good one
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