Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
Tesla
Anyone that has followed Tesla knows that when it comes to things like timelines nothing goes as first planned. Surprisingly, Tesla moved its production ramp of 5,000 Model 3’s per week out to late in the first quarter. It is surprising because I had feared it might have been far longer. The Model X ramp up seemed to be much longer and much harder than expected, while this ramp appears to be going much more smoothly. Musk later on the call said he expected to be at a few thousand model 3’s per week by the end of the year.
[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row] Get This In Your E-Mail Subscribe
Tesla results came in pretty much as one should have expected. Revenues slightly better, net loss wider than expected. Capital Expenditures were $1.1 billion, while R&D expense came in $331.6 million. Cash position $3.5 billion. End of the day Tesla is still spending a lot to ramp up production and invest in the future, while capital raise is not needed presently.
The stock traded down in the after-hours to about $305, or roughly $17. But the stock only traded approximately 1.5 million shares after hours, while trading nearly 8.5 million shares during the day. Point being, volume wasn’t insanely high, which suggest to me at least the drop may have been slightly too much. Remember that most institutional investors do not trade in the pre and post markets. My hunch is that when trading opens, the picture may look slightly different, at least that is what my experience suggests.
TSLA Price data by YCharts
[poll id=”8″]
It may sound naive to some to read this but investing in Tesla isn’t about the company missing deliveries by 100 cars, or beating/ missing revenue estimates. It is about a much longer-term, bigger picture. The company continues to grow, the number of deliveries continue to rise, while demand for the cars has increased as well. Regarding valuation, the chart is all you need to look at, because in 2014 the market decided the company was worth about $35 billion and pretty much stayed there, until this past year when it jumped to roughly $50 billion. The market decided about three years ago how much Tesla was worth, like it or not.
TSLA Market Cap data by YCharts
[poll id=”9″]
Facebook continues to crushed it, with revenue of $10.328 billion, an increase of 47 percent from 3Q’16. Wall Street was looking for $9.844 billion, according to Ycharts. The US and Canada saw a jump in revenue per user to $20.69 from $18.93, sequential; this is by far the most significant revenue area for Facebook. In total US and Canada contributed $4.912 billion of the total revenue. The amazing thing, Facebook paid an effective tax of only 10 percent in the quarter. Overall, it is hard to find something not to like in FB’s results.
Premium Content: Benefits include the ability to reach out to Mike with questions through a chat room, direct message, or comments.Â
Facebook, Alibaba, Apple Earning Preview
What Good Are The Analyst Worth!
Qualcomm
Qualcomm ($QCOM) posted results that came in higher than expected at $5.303 billion and earnings of $0.58. According to Ycharts, analysts had been looking for revenue of $5.246 and EPS of $0.81. Still, don’t be fooled by the beat, it was still a year-over-year decline. The problems at Qualcomm seems to be getting worse, not better, and picking a fight with your most significant customer in Apple, is undoubtedly not away to fix things.
QCOM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts
Apple
Tomorrow is the Apple show and more critical iPhone X day. There is no point to posting the expectation for Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter because no one will likely care. I’ll just skip to the expectations for the fiscal first quarter and full-year 2018.
For the first quarter the street is looking for $3.78, and revenue of $85.34 billion, while the full-year estimates are calling for EPS of $11.16 and revenue of $266.51. Of course, commentary for the iPhone X is what matters most.
Acadia Pharma
The company has a poster being presented on Friday at 1:30 on Pimavanserin in Alzheimers Disease Psychosis. The data presented should be the data investors have waited nearly 11 months to see, and in which is the foundation of their latest Phase III trial in Dementia-Related Psychosis, in which the drug got a breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA.
Till Tomorrow.
Free Articles Written By Mike:
Starbucks 4Q Earnings Could Surprise Investors
Apple Shares Are Set Up For Post-Earnings Fall
Apple’s Chip Suppliers Are Breaking Out
Amazon, Alphabet And Microsoft Simply Crushed It
Why Mastercard’s Stock Could Rise 15%
Why Amazon’s Earnings Aren’t As Strong As They Look
Qualcomm Deal With NXP Will Eventually Get Done – M…
Celgene and Biogen May Be Signalling A Biotech Bottom
AMD Could Rise 10% Despite Results, Trades Indicate
Why Tesla’s Stock Is Breaking Down
Why Is McDonald’s Valued Like a Big Tech Stock?
Why Biogen May Sink Biotech Sector As Earnings Beat
Netflix Stock Likely to Rise as EPS Estimates Jump
Bank of America Could Rise Nearly 50%: Technical Analysis
AMD Could Break Out After Results
Qualcomm’s Bid For NXP Still Lacks Investor Support
Celgene’s Sharp Sell-Off Is Likely Overdone
Procter & Gamble Continues To Have Two Big Problems
GE: Getting Excited For The Future
Why IBM’s Big Stock Rally Won’t Last
Allergan Shares On The Verge Of Further Breakdown
We offer a lot of great commentaries all week talking about the major and relevant market events. Be sure to subscribe to get this all and of all free commentaries sent directly to your inbox or follow us on Twitter.
-OR-
[vc_row css_animation=”” row_type=”row” use_row_as_full_screen_section=”no” type=”full_width” angled_section=”no” text_align=”left” background_image_as_pattern=”without_pattern”][vc_column][vc_tweetmeme type=”follow” follow_user=”michaelmottcm” show_followers_count=”true” large_button=”true”][/vc_column][/vc_row]
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own shares of TSLA and ACAD
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Rates Surge Stocks Drop Following Hot Job Report, CPI Next Week
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles January 10, 2025 12:02 PM