This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,418 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
Tesla, Netflix, Twitter, Boeing, Square-The Week of July 2 in Stocks
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA, NFLX, AAPL, SWKS
It will be a big week for stocks with the start of the third-quarter, the sell-off on Friday into the close I’m sure left some feeling a bit uncertain going into the beginning of this week. But I think the sell-off may have just been a case of more of the same, technically refilling the gap.
The chart below shows how the S&P 500 completely refilled the opening gap by the end of the day Friday.
The chart in the Technology ETF XLK looks very similar to that of the S&P 500, and again a gap fill occurred at the end of the day.
The Discretionary also appeared to bounce where they should.
Netflix could still be looking at a decline to about $382, with a downtrend over the short-term in place, and what appears to be a descending triangle. But I think that would likely be short-term. I expect to continue to see some positive analysts commentary for the stock ahead of results around July 16.
Search terms for Netflix subscriptions appear to have seen a meaningful surge over the last few days of the second-quarter, and will likely bode well for subscriber growth in the second-quarter.
It will be a massive week for Tesla, with all eyes on second-quarter delivery results, released on July 3. The Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker has Tesla producing more than 4,500 Model 3’s per week. According to some other reports, Tesla registered about 2,500 VINS for the dual motor Model 3 as well.
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) June 28, 2018
So signs are pointing to Tesla being very close to the 5,000 units per week because if memory serves me right, the dual motor Model 3’s were not expected to be produced until production rates hit 5,000 per week, again that is based off what I remember.
Also, Elon Musk’s mood seems to have improved noticeably on Twitter in recent weeks, from what looked like frustration at points, to one of being much happier.
The Spice. Must. Flow. pic.twitter.com/ov4aLIwzKz
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 29, 2018
The chips stock have gone nowhere since the launch of the new iPhone last fall. Perhaps that will change with the upcoming line up of new iPhone, in September. I suspect we should start hearing more about how the books are building for these new phones on quarterly results in the coming weeks. I think the most important companies to pay attention to in this process will be the Skyworks, Qrovo and Cirrus Logic as they tend to be reasonably good barometers for the how that supply chain is building.
Running through some charts.Twitter looks set to rise to about $52.50, with a strong technical pattern in the chart.
Square looks to be heading back to around $56.50.
Boeing still looks like it is on way to $320.
I also think BofA is heading to $26.
Good luck this week.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.