The Fed, FedEx, Amazon, and Micron Will Drive Trading on March 20

US Trading

S&P 500 Futures +1 point
US 10-year yields 2.6%
Oil 58,39
VIX 13.66
Dollar 96.44

International Trading

Japan Nikkei +0.20%
Hong Kong HSI -0.49%
China Shanghai -0.01%
South Korea KOSPI -0.2%
German Dax -1.33%
UK FTSE -0.05%

FOMC Meeting

Stocks will attempt to rebound from yesterday’s late day sell-off, and by the looks of the futures, a flat opening is a good start. The headline news event of the day will be the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The odds of a rate cut later this year or early next year continue to increase. But most important will be the commentary centered around inflation expectations and the balance sheet.

Yields

Recent trends in the velocity of MZM do show that the pace of money changing hands has started to trend higher in past quarters, but are still at very depressed levels and indeed continue to call for the low-interest rate environment.

We can probably continue to argue that rates on the on US bonds can likely continue to fall given the low levels of inflation, and wide spreads with global yields.

Economic Headwinds

FedEx arguably confirmed to some extent what we already knew; that the economy was slow and was likely to stay sluggish over the next quarter.

So, with that, let me take a few minutes to talk about our economic outlook. We see solid economic growth in the U.S. but somewhat below last year’s pace. Internationally, performances is mixed across regions as overall growth moderates. The Eurozone and Japan still appear sluggish while emerging markets growth eases at a gradual pace. A recurring theme in global surveys on economic activity is a negative impact from global trade frictions and heightened uncertainty. World trade is slowing, and leading indicators point to positive but ongoing deceleration in trade growth in the near term.

Since our last earnings call, we have seen the overall China economy slow down further, and this has impacted other Asian economies. Given the size of China, no markets will be able to absorb more than a fraction of what China produces, but customers continue to look to diversify from China. We have also seen some customers evaluate mode optimization. Our network and portfolio lets customers respond quickly and act locally for our customers in China, as well as around the world.

However, when we think about this commentary, it would continue to suggest that economy in the US slower, but not at the recessionary type of levels some had feared in the December and early January.

Additionally, when we couple this commentary of a slower global economy with the outlook Broadcom provided on its outlook for the semiconductor business, we can begin to get a sense that we may be at the trough in the slowdown and will soon be re-emerging from it.

As a result, after a solid start to the year, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2019 revenue guidance of $24.5 billion. Having said that, we expect our semiconductor business to bottom in the second fiscal quarter, driven almost entirely by the seasonal drop in wireless.

But looking to the second half, we are confident that semiconductor business will resume very meaningful growth. This will be driven by strong product cycles in both wireless and networking, coupled with a recovery in broadband.

I spoke about Broadcom’s results in a video commentary the other day. The drawing below is where I think we are in the cycle about.

FedEx (FDX)

The good news for FedEx is that support for the stock comes around $167. Not what I was thinking would happen, but I think the hope of a positive outlook may have swayed me.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom, however, has risen sharply, and I think this one can advance further to around $315. Why Broadcom May Climb Higher

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is moving up in the pre-market and rising above the $1,770 level of resistance again. It is probably the most important stock to watch today. If Amazon can continue to its positive momentum higher, then I think the market can rally behind it.

Micron (MU)

It will also be a big day for Micron. They report results after the day’s end, and the chart continues to show that the stock is in a very tough region of resistance between $40 and $42. Additionally, according to data from Trade-Alert this morning the latest open interest changes continue to show many bearish bets yesterday with an increasing open interest for expiration on May 17, at the $35, $38, and $40 puts. The calls saw an increase open interest rise but for expiration on Oct 18 at the $45 strike price.

(Trade Alert)

Have a great day!

-Mike

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