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June 15, 2021
STOCKS – FCX, C, BABA
MACRO – SPY, IXIC, COPPER, IEF
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- RTM- Rates Are Unlikely To Rise Thanks To The ECB
- Tactical Update: The Second Half Of 2021 Just Became A Stock Picker’s Market
- Adding Splunk To The Portfolio
- RTM Inflation Has Likely Peaked
- RTM: Inflation Expectations Are Sending Negative Growth Signal – MU Big Bear Bets
- RTM – Transports And Housing On Watch
- Tactical Update: Sinking Inflation Expectations May Signal Risk-Off
- RTM: Inflationary Pressures Still Building
- AND SO IT BEGINS. PLUS A BIG BEAR BET IN BANK OF AMERICA
Stocks finished the day slightly lower, with the NASDAQ 100 falling by 70 bps and the S&P 500 dropping by 20 bps. The market is waiting for the Fed now, and what is likely to be billed as one of the more important Fed meetings in Jay Powell’s career. I’m not really sure it will live up to that hype, though, because what is Powell to say? We are now thinking about, thinking about tapering.
I would be surprised if Powell doesn’t talk about tapering. I think the market broadly expects him to talk about tapering. He will likely signal that tapering is down the road. But now is really the time to bring up the subject, especially since he is covered by the ECB buying nearly $100 billion in bonds a month in Europe.
The dot plot may have more importance since it will tell you what the Fed is thinking about in terms of inflation and growth and future hikes. The technical chart for the market still shows the rising wedge. But the pattern is now complete. We did finish a little lower, but nothing too concerning.
The NASDAQ Composite has one of the more perfect triple top set ups I have seen in forever. The symmetry of the peaks is amazing. The February 16 high is 14,175.12. The peak on April 29 was 14,211.57, and the peak on June 14 was 14,175.45. If the June 14 peak holds, I would think the composite has a chance to fall back to around 13,000. If it breaks above resistance to the upside, then it could have a distance to climb.
Yields
The PPI data came in very hot today, and the bond market hardly cared. The bond market is telling us something, and it isn’t good. I’m not too fond of the direction of things. This is about more than inflation being transitory.
Copper
Copper prices fell 4.2% today and seem to suggest something along with Treasury rates. Copper broke a big support level and trend line today. The next stop could be $4.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba is back to looking pretty weak again, with the stock falling back below support at $210.25. There is not much that is positive on the chart currently.
Freeport (FCX)
Freeport fell nearly 5% today, following copper prices lower. The stock is now trading below its 50-day moving average. However, there is some support around $34.
Citigroup (C)
Citigroup fell 2% after the CFO noted that trading revenue was likely to fall. The stock fell below the uptrend and the 50-day moving average, with support somewhere around $69.15.
Have a good one.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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