This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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July 16 – Stock Mentions SPY, JPM, TSLA, AAPL, AMD, NFLX
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA, AAPL, NFLX
- S&P 500 Futures +1.25 points
- 10-Year US Treasury 2.09%
- Dollar Index 97.19
- Oil $59.78
- VIX 12.58
- Japan Nikkei -0.69%
- Shanghai Composite -0.16%
- Hong Kong HSI +0.23%
- South Korea KOSPI +0.45%
- UK FTSE +0.26%
- Germany DAX – Flat
Suddenly the CME Group FedWatch tool is now suggesting a 70% chance of 25 basis point rate cut on July 31 down from 97% last week. Meanwhile, the odds of 50 basis point rate cut increased to 30% from 3% last week. Interesting, to say the least. I must have missed something somewhere along the way that these odds have changed so rapidly.
Big Day for Data
July 16 will be a big day for economic data as the second quarter data stream winds down. Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, Business Inventory, and Industrial Production.
Meanwhile, the Germany ZEW Business survey came worse than expected. Current conditions came in at -1.1 versus estimates of 5, while Business expectations came in at -24.5 versus estimates for -22.
Trading Session for July 16
The S&P 500 is pointing to a roughly flat opening on July 16. However, the index will be running up against an uptrend today, so that will either push the index higher or lower. That trend line should act as strong support and help to drive the index higher, towards my target of 3,055.
JPMorgan reported robust results on July 16, easily beating estimates on both the top and bottom lines. However, the stock is falling following those results. However, according to Breifing.com, the company lowered its net interest income outlook, and that could be what is weighing on the shares. For now, resistance appears to be around $117. However, there is an uptrend in the stock that has been in place since the December lows. It should help to limit the downside in the equity..
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Tesla’s stock is falling some this morning, testing the break out late yesterday afternoon at $250. The company has updated pricing and variants of its Model S/X/3. Anyway, I would think that $250 should offer strong support for TSLA on its way to around $260.
Apple continues to be on a path higher towards $209. The stock is in a very well defined trading channel.
AMD is on the cusp of that major break out we have been watching at $34.50. That is likely to set up a push towards $36.15.
I will be watching Netflix closely today after two fragile days. The company is reporting results tomorrow night after the close. The low $360 region has acted as support/resistance on a few occasions, so we should see a bounce back to the high $370 ahead of results.
Have a great day.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.