October 16 – STOCK MENTIONS- SPY, UUP, NFLX, TSLA, DIS, AMD, BYND

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN NFLX, TSLA, DIS

Stocks had an ok day falling by about 20 basis points to finish at 2,989. I noted today in the mid-day update that index was likely to hold support at 2986 and the uptrend, which is pretty much what happened. The good news is that formation created in the index appears to be a rising triangle – Stocks Drifting Lower – premium content

It would indicate to me that S&P 500 is getting closer to a breakout above 3,000, which will push the index to 3,025. Then, if the patterns holds, leading to the most significant break out of them all at 3,025.

We can see in the old chart of the SPX how the advance/decline reached a new high today. It is likely a sign of what is to come.

Sorry bears, it is just how it goes sometimes.

Dollar (UUP)

Watch the dollar, I feel like a broken record here, but once again it is on the cusp of a breakdown. I’d love to start seeing the dollar move lower. It would be great for lifting commodity prices. It would also be a positive for stocks and acting as a tailwind for revenue and earnings. That would be bad news for the bears.

Bond Spreads

Look at how much spreads between the US and German bonds have fallen; the dollar should be weakening.

A Normal Yield Curve, Wait,  What?

By the way, have you noticed how the inverted yield is now normalizing? Amazing. Rate cuts can work wonders.

 

Netflix (NFLX)

Moving on to Netflix, what an exciting time. I was joking with a subscriber following the results about my heart racing. I was kidding, of course. But thanks to my fabulous new Apple Watch, it shows how much my heart rate went up when the results came out.

LOL, anyway. The stock is trading up tonight by about 10% to around $312.  The results look solid to me; it kills the narrative that competition was an issue for them. It was there best third quarter ever. The red lines are for the second quarter.

But this my favorite part of the shareholder letter:

Many are focused on the “streaming wars,” but we’ve been competing with streamers (Amazon, YouTube, Hulu) as well as linear TV for over a decade. The upcoming arrival of services like Disney+, Apple TV+, HBO Max, and Peacock is increased competition, but we are all small compared to linear TV. While the new competitors have some great titles (especially catalog titles), none have the variety, diversity and quality of new original programming that we are producing around the world.

Sounds kind of like what I wrote:

The challenges Netflix faces is nothing new – for years, they have already been fighting rivals such as Amazon (AMZN) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (GOOGL), through Prime and YouTube, Hulu, and the traditional linear TV cable bundles.

I guess it doesn’t mean as much coming from me as it does from them. I can understand, though.

The stock is rising after hours, hitting resistance at $319, and moving down some. I’d expect the stock to challenge $319 and move higher through the fourth quarter attempting to fill the gap at $362.

I wrote about Netflix yesterday. – Why Netflix May Rise Following Results

Tesla (TSLA)

Now, if we can only figure out which way Tesla is going. $266 is a significant level to watch. I still think $300 is possible this year.

Disney (DIS)

Disney is moving up on Netflix. Today I noted some bullish options activity I saw in the stock for the SA Market Place Subs. Here’s Why Disney’s Share May Climb, btw you can sign-up too; there is no limit to the number of subscribers, and the best part is that the first two weeks are free to try. 🙂

AMD (AMD)

AMD had a good day hitting $31.40. That is the level we had been looking for since $28 on October 3(free to read). I’m glad it finally got there.

Beyond Meat (BYND)

I’m interested in this. I’m going to have to do some serious work on this tomorrow in terms of this lock-up. The chart looks dreadful.

-Mike