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August 18, 2020
STOCKS – AMZN, NFLX, MU, WDC
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
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- A Breaking Point Nears, One Way Or Another
- Stocks Drifting – Morning
- A Sudden And Swift Drawdown?
- Options Still Indicate Top Is In – Morning
- Inflation Does Not Appear To Pose A Threat Anytime Soon
- Risk-On Trade Remains In Focus The Week Of August 17
- Visa Shares May Decline Over The Near Term
- Earnings Trends For The S&P 500 Continue To Drift Higher
Stocks are rising here in the US, with the S&P 500 ETF up about 17 bps, and the Qs up about ten bps. We will see where this goes, but trading overseas hasn’t been particularly strong, with Hong Kong trading lower and Germany up about 30 bps.
I have been particularly interested in watching LG Chemical in Korea, and Tencent in HK. The chart of LG Chemical is breathe taking, but the turn lower is equally as scary. The stock could easily fall 25% from where it is and still be up tremendously. This, to me, maybe one of the critical sentiment stock that needs to be followed.
Meanwhile, Tencent continues to tetter on what could a massive decline…
…and continues to be a pretty good leading indicator for Amazon and Netflix.
Meanwhile, the memory chip maker, Micron/Western Digi competitor, SK Hynix, looks pretty dire.
Meanwhile, the SMH is forming a large rising wedge pattern, and if the memory chip guys are sending a message, then the SMH could easily fall 10% from where it is currently.
Meanwhile, the KOSPI, one market I have followed every night since February, is now 4% off its peak, and diverging from the NASDAQ 100.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose to a record close last night as the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average fell by 2% and has been trending lower.
This, as the Advance/Decline line, fell as well. The AD line hit a record high on August 12 and has been trending lower since. It suggests the rally is getting narrower, and failing to confirm the record close.
Good Luck
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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