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March 10, 2020
Stocks: None
Marco: SPY, Spreads, Dollar
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Well, if you didn’t listen to the audio file from this morning, I’m sorry. I wish you had, particularly starting around the 5-minute mark. If you did listen, then you know what I am talking about.
Turnaround Tuesday
That was pretty much a perfect textbook day. I couldn’t have drawn it out any better. If today wasn’t the bottom, then we have much bigger problems on our hands.
The big gap open, the big sell-off, retesting yesterday’s lows, the hold and that late end of day surge. Wow. Perfect. Even better, we took out resistance at 2,855 after failing two times earlier in the day to close at the day’s high at 2,882.
Now 2,855 once again become support, and even better, we have another significant support level down around 2,735.
I think this means that we ultimately look to fill that gap up to 2,986. I am just putting a caution zone in at 2,900, in case.
Looking for Confirmation
So how do we confirm today’s rally as an official turnaround Tuesday, bottom in, day? Well, that is pretty easy gap lower tomorrow fall to around 2,855, and the rest of the day fill the gap up and push above today’s close. It wouuld reverses the current trend, which has been gap higher and trade lower all day.
The good news the RSI is starting to trend higher too.
Spreads
And, like I have been saying, the equity market is merely following the spreads on bonds, and those rose sharply today too. The USDE10YR is on the cusp of breaking the downtrend, and that is a big deal. It could mean that 10-year rises back to over 1%.
Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar index had a great day, too, also rising sharply. Notice any patterns.
Anyway, I’m tired, and I’m taking the rest of the day off. I think I deserve this one.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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