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STOCKS – MSFT, ACAD, NVDA, BA
MACRO – SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD AND MSFT
Stocks were crushed today, with the S&P 500 falling by almost 3.5%. This week, the index is down more than 5%, and for some reason, it reminds me a lot like March. Of course, I say that because the coronavirus is once again spreading like wildfire, and Europe is locking down. While I don’t think lockdowns are heading our way on a national level, I do think regions of the country on a local or state level will. At the very least, I think people will be less willing to go out and spend regardless of a lockdown. It really raises the chances of a double-dip recession.
I know the idea of a double-dip recession seems crazy to some of you, but the economy is pretty weak. Just because we don’t have a shutdown doesn’t mean the economy couldn’t contract by 1 or 2% in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. I think it could do that rather easily. Remember, growth for the economy is based Q/Q on an annualized basis.
I know that a double-dip recession isn’t the trending term on many financial news websites, but I have been at this game long enough to know how the market works. It starts with covid fears and will eventually turn to the recession narrative.
Anyway, my two weeks of bullishness is over. This is why I have repeated that I thought the market could rise until the election. Well, that was that. The market has zero fundamentals to support it at current valuations, and the risk of a double-dip recession is not at all priced into the equation at this point. That will mean that earnings estimates for next year are too high, and those will need to come down.
I still think the S&P 500 could be heading to 2,860.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft reported incredible results last night, as I have said already. But still, the stock suffered today, falling by 5%. It was not spared. Why, because it is trading at its highest valuation since the early 2000s. I love the company for the long-term, don’t get me wrong. I think it needs to consolidate some, with the next level around $198.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Well, that a wrap; after 7 months of maintaining an uptrend, Nvidia finally broke down today. The RSI is melting, and I think this one goes lower still; $ 461 for starters seems good.
Acadia (ACAD)
Someone knows something because Acadia has been very strong lately. The company reports results next week, so I guess we will find out. An increase above $48 opens a path to $52.
Boeing (BA)
Boeing did not have a good day, either. Support will come at $144, and after that, maybe $127.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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