This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, GOOGL, MA, NFLX, ACAD
Before we get into the stocks for the week of November 5, first I want to give you a few updates.
A big thank you for making October the second consecutive month of record page view for the Monster Stock Market Commentary. The commentary saw a 47% month-over-month increase in page views to about 24,000. A year ago, the commentary had a total of only 6,500 page views in October.
Second, we added 147 free subscribers during the month to the free email distribution list, an 18% rise m/m. To think at the end of October in 2017, the email was going to only 179 subscribers; now it goes to 970. Wow!
So, I’m thrilled by the growth, and I owe it to all of you! Thank you! As long as you keep reading, I will keep writing! The more readers we get, the more encouraging it is for me to continue to improve the commentary. I have some exciting things planned for 2019. So make sure you share it if you love it!
Apple is the most important stock around. I read the conference call notes on Apple this weekend, and they are rather amusing. If you haven’t read them yet, you need to read it. It is a 5-minute read. Seriously, I had my seven years old daughter read them to me last night so she could practice her reading. Ok maybe she read like two-paragraphs to me, but still. Read it. The link is here.
It was as if the world were coming to an end because Apple wasn’t going to give iPhone unit sales. One analyst went as far to say, well we are so used to having X and then multiplying it by Y. My first comment, when was the last time the sell-side got the Average selling price for the iPhone right? They always underestimate. Second, none of Apple’s top competitors give out units sales.
You know that Apple’s gross margins on services must be incredible, right? Why else are they trying to turn investors attention away from unit sales to gross margins? I’m fine if Apple sells fewer iPhones, as long as they can keep generating more revenue from them. The future of Apple is its iOS ecosystem and all the things Apple can do for you. Apple is trying to turn everyone attention to the ecosystem and say look iPhone units were the past; now it is time to look to the future. I am very excited. I can’t believe how badly investors missed this.
I think the stock is fine, but should it should continue to fall over the next few days as investors continue to be confused, support looks solid at $195.
I know there are lots of questions around Amazon, and again, as I noted on Friday, I am encouraged by what I see on this chart. I think Amazon gets a short-term bounce back to $1750. But longer-term I believe the stock still has significant headwinds, about its valuation and revenue growth. More on that later.
I think if Netflix can stay over $306 it has room to run to $332.
Microsoft has trended lower, and support looks firm around $100 to $102. Should it drop below $100, it may lead to a further drop to $94. A rise above $107 leads to an increase to back to $113.
Alphabet has firm support at $1000, and the last time the 50-day and 200 day moving got this close in June, the stock went on a monster run higher. I think the same is about to happen here. A rise above 1170 sends the stock back to record highs.
Roku is rebounding and it looks like it may be on its way back to $64. They report this week!
I think Intel is on is its way higher to $51. Look at the RSI rise!
Mastercard has been beaten up, and I think this $185 level looks firm. A rise to $210 should be around the corner.
Acadia reports this week, and I still think it is on the way to $27.
Sage got the significant FDA approval for their postpartum depression drug, which was not a surprise. But it looks pretty clear the stock is filling the gap back to $98.
Caterpillar has been destroyed and probably unfairly. The call didn’t scream of the disaster that the price has seen. I think you at least fill the gap up to $132.
Boeing failed at $371, and that may mean a retest of $329 is coming.
Good luck this week!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
stocks, november 5, amazon, apple, microsoft, alphabet, netflix, mastercard, acadia, caterpillar, boeing