Amazon, Netflix May Rise, Alibaba, AMD May Fall, Plus Apple Drama

Amazon, Netflix May Rise, Alibaba, AMD May Fall, Plus Apple Drama

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

Otherwise, enjoy the column!

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S&P 500 (SPX, SP500)

The S&P 500 posted a strong showing today rising by about 50 basis points, while the NASDAQ fell by 50 bps. But the encouraging signs are that the NASDAQ and some big technology names finished well off their lows.


The NASDAQ managed to stay above technical support at 7,280, but it also failed to rise above the long-term uptrend. We need to see the NASDAQ get above that uptrend.


The next chart shows the importance of that long-term uptrend. So we will want to see the index climb over that red uptrend line, to sustain any bullish momentum that it is building.


Apple (AAPL)

I really can’t believe all the hoopla around Apple and iPhone units. Really, why is this such a big deal? I had to turn off the TV and stop watching it. It is almost as bad Tesla and the Model 3 production ramp.

But I’ll tell you; it took only one day for the reports out of Asia to start that Apple was scaling backs iPhone XR production. One day! The company reported results on Thursday night, and by this morning, we were reading that Apple is cutting XR production. A perfect example of why Apple isn’t given these sales unit. This is what we heard for half of last year, but amazingly Apple sold an awful lot of iPhone. I suspect this year will not be any different. I have the iPhone XS Max; it is beyond awesome. The screen is amazing.

This all about the transformation of the business into a service orientated ecosystem model and away from the hardware side.

I still think the stock is fine, but should it fall, support is around $195. Where did our mystery buyer go?

apple, aapl

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix had a nice turn higher today after falling to support around $306. I have been fishing the last few days trying to find an uptrend in the stock. I still think the stock has a clear path to $332.

netflix, nflx

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon fell again today too, but it also managed to hang around support at $1,620. Still, that is a fairly reasonable sign that it too can lift to perhaps $1750

amazon, amzn

Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba failed at its downtrend around and resistance at $151, we could be looking at a retest of the lows.


Look at the way analysts keep slashing their estimates for next year.

BABA EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Year Chart

BABA EPS Estimates for Next Fiscal Year data by YCharts


AMD may be on its way lower towards $16 again. Look how it failed at $21 and then again $19.95.



The Shanghai Composite is pretty close to a breakout, which could send it higher on its way to 2,720. That would be positive for our market too.



That is it for today.


Photo credit via Flickr

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.

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