This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,365 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
17 Stocks That May Have A Monster Final 4 Months of 2018
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SHARES OF NFLX, AAPL, SWKS, V, MA, CELG
A Chase For Performance
Stocks have been grinding higher all summer long. It has to make one wonder if the slow summer months couldn’t bring the market down, what about the coming four months. Well, if it is a repeat of last year, then that equity prices may be heading much higher.
The performance of many hedge funds as tracked by Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index has been a big disappointment, yielding a return of just 0.37 percent, through the end of July, well below the S&P 500 total return index of 7 percent. Even worse, the long-only absolute Fund was down by nearly 2 percent through July.
Again this may serve as more evidence that we may begin to see a .continued rise through year-end. Should these underperforming funds start to chase returns, in attempt to narrow the gap between the broader equity market performance.
I talk about it even more in the latest video that I put on Friday and made available to anyone that wants to see it.
Additionally, some sectors that may continue to perform well in the final few months of the year may consist of Technology, Biotech, Discretionaries. These have been the hot sectors since 2017 and at this point this likely not to change. In fact, we may even see a further rise in these sectors as investors flock into the hot stocks trying to dress up their portfolio’s, looking more gains by year-end.
Netflix is one such stock that may continue to perform well. We have started to see that performance already pick up in the final few days of August. The stock is up by more than 170 percent since the start of 2017, and it could be on its way back to around $400.
Apple is another stock that is likely to continue to do well going into the final few months of the year. The Apple iPhone refresh starts on September 12, and that as I noted the other day, according to a DigiTimes report, manufactors are preparing to ship between 70 and 75 million iPhones between the launch date and year-end. It would be the most iPhone ship since the iPhone 6. It gives Apple a chance to surprise investors and should services continue to grow at a strong pace; it could offer Apple a two sided attack.
It is unlikely that anything changes for Amazon either. The stock has been surging and it doesn’t seem like the company can be stopped at this point. The only thing that could hurt Amazon is if they choose to spend more than investors are expecting this quarter. Otherwise, there is probably no company around that has much control of its bottom line that Amazon.
If you like e-commerce and you think that space will continue to do well, then you have to love Visa, MasterCard, Square, and PayPal’s chances in the final four months of the year as well.
Chip stocks could be big winners these final few months of the year too, especially those Apple suppliers if iPhones are going to be strong. We get the first peak this week, when Broadcom reports fiscal third-quarter results, and gives guidance.
Biotechs should continue to perform well, and the four horsemen of biotech may be back, Celgene, Biogen, Amgen, Gilead. Then through companies like Vertex and Illumina, and it could be a strong final four-months for this group.
Back tomorrow with the stock not likely to perform in the final four months.
Michael Kramer is the Founder of Mott Capital and the creator of Reading the Markets.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future.
#APPLE #NETFLIX #AMAZON #BIOTECH #CELGENE #BIOGEN #AMGEN #GILEAD #VISA #MASTERCARD #SQUARE #PAYPAL