This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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August 26 – Stock mentions: SPY, FXY, VXX, AAPL, TLT, SLV
Michael Kramer and clients of Mott Capital own AAPL
- S&P 500 Futures +75 basis points
- US 10-Year 1.52%
- US 10-Year minus US 2-Year +0.004%
- Oil $54.83
- Dollar Index 97.96
- VIX 19.80
- Shanghai -1.17%
- HSI -1.91%
- KOSPI -1.64%
- Nikkei -2.17%
- Germany +0.57%
- UK -0.47%
Stocks are moving higher this morning after news broke early today that the US and China are heading back to the table to talk trade. In all honesty, to make an investment decision based on all of this back and forth is nearly impossible.
The one significant takeaway that continues to hold is that a lot of these significant downdrafts in the markets on China worries one way or another result in a recovery. I think the primary reason for this is that President Trump very much cares about the stock market and its performance. As long as that remains the case, I think the declines are some insulated. (See: Your Survival Guide To The Week Of August 26)
S&P 500 Futures (ES)
We can see that the futures are sharply off their lows. Also, notice how the futures on the S&P 500 did not make new lows. This is a similar pattern to what I noted over the weekend in other asset classes.
S&P 500 (SPY) Cash
However, for the S&P 500 cash resistance will hover around 2872, and then the 2900 region.
One sign that tensions are easing will be to watch the Dollar/Yen. The Yen is weakening today rising back to around 106. As I tell my subscribers regularly, a yen that is falling towards 100 is strengthening and indicting fears are rising. Meanwhile, an increase towards 110 indicates that fears are easing.
The VIX needs to continue to fall and as long as it stay below 20, there is a chance it moves lower towards 17.5, which should help to lift equity prices.
Apple is one stock that is a must-watch with resistance at $209.50.
Silver ETF (SLV)
Silver is pushing over $16.40 and could be pushing towards $17.25
iShares 20+ Year ETF (TLT)
I also continue to believe that TLT is heading lower towards $135.
Good Luck today
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.