This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
Subscribe to the Monster Stock Market Commentary and join the 2,533 subscribers getting it for FREE every day!
July 14, 2021
STOCKS – AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA
MACRO – QQQ, SPY, ARKK, RSP
- RTM Video- The Stock Market May Be Ready For A Big Sell-Off
- RTM Morning – Markets Still Overbought Heading Into OPEX On Friday
- RTM Video – Breaking Down The Earnings Trends Of The 8 Biggest S&P 500 Components
- RTM Morning: Inflation Runs Hotter On The Surface
- RTM Educational Content – Closing Imbalances
- RTM Video – 2Q Results Will Be Crucial For The Stock Market
- Apple And Amazon Caught In A Gamma Squeeze?
- RTM Tactical Update: The Technology Sector Will Not Be Immune To Slowing Growth
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL
This will be the last blog for the next week to two weeks. I have my surgery on Friday to repair my herniated disc, and then I will be out of commission for several days. Thank you for all the support and kindness; it is appreciated, as is your loyalty to me over the past few years.
As I was writing today’s blog, I thought I had a deja-vu for a moment. It turns out it wasn’t deja-vu because it actually happened. The Day was January 29, 2018. The story; 4 STOCKS THAT ARE SIGNALING THE STOCK MARKET IS READY TO FALL. In that story, I noted how the RSIs of AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL all had very overbought RSIs. Apple was in the mix for other reasons. Of course, things got really ugly after that through February 8.
The same thing is emerging today, with the biggest stocks all reaching very overbought reading. On the surface, stocks did a bunch of nothing today, rising by around 10 bps. It really wasn’t a great day, and if not for Apple, the index probably would have been down. The S&P 500 EW (RSP) was actually down about 15 bps today, so that’s evidence enough.
But remember what I wrote above.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) managed to finish the day with an RSI of 75.5, a pretty high reading, well not pretty high, very high. I will mention this again, in case you have not seen it from me enough. When the QQQ RSI gets this high, the outcomes are not good most of the time, including January 2018.
Apple is no different, with an RSI, back over 80. This is not a sustainable level.
Microsoft is no different, with an RSI currently at 76.1, coupled with the completion of its 5 waves up.
As it is for Alphabet with RSI of 73 and rising wedge pattern.
As is Amazon, with its now lower reading of 70 on the RSI.
Nvidia may be leading the charge, as it was one of the first stocks to break higher. Now it is one of the first stocks to break down. The stock’s RSI, after hitting 83, has now broken an uptrend which started on May 19 with an RSI that is clearly trending lower. Could the shares fall back to $650 very easily, based on technical and fundamentals.
Finally, who can forget the ARKK (ETF). Its RSI reached 76 while failing miserably at resistance around $131.
Anyway, I will leave you with that. I will be back as soon as I can.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.