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April 10, 2021
STOCKS – NONE
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- T.W.A: The Week Of April 12 Is Likely To Be Harder For Stocks
- Midday Note- Setting Up For A Rug Pull
- Live Webcast Tomorrow At NOON
- Morning Note – Here To Pump You Up
- Midday: Stocks Stall As Fed Minutes Reveal Little
- Morning Note -Growth Sell-Off May Not Be Over
- Midday- Inflation Expectations Fall
- Morning Note: Despite Index Level Gains, Very Little Has Changed
Anyway, another interesting week is upon us, and it isn’t often that we find the S&P 500 overbought, using the RSI and Bollinger bands on a Daily, Weekly, and Monthly basis all at the same time. But that is exactly the case. Also, in this week’s video for members of Reading The Markets, I review why I think the level around 4,130 on the SPX appears to offer a lot of technical resistance. (Premium content on SA Marketplace – T.W.A: The Week Of April 12 Is Likely To Be Harder For Stocks)
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
The chart below shows the S&P 500 now at the 1.618% extension from peak to trough of the March 2020 decline.
There is also this chart that shows the 4,125 area as a 38.2% extension from the March low to the September peak.
This log chart shows the trading channel that has been in place since the 1920s and has only been violated 2 times, the late 1920s and the late 1990s. We are the very upper end of the channel right now.
I stumbled upon this too, when I was looking at previous periods. I noticed the double bottom shape in April and May of 1987, which made me wonder what would happen if I overlaid 1986 and 1987 with 2020 and 2021. I got this…
I will tell you this the period of June 2020 until March 2021 is incredibly similar to November 1986 to October 1987. History may not repeat in the chart below, but it sure does rhyme.
Finally, the market’s momentum is undeniable. Still, it appears to be occurring with fewer people participating, which means the market is not nearly as strong as it would seem, especially on the NASDAQ. It either suggests that sellers have taken a vacation and decided to let the buyers pay up, or there is a serious buyer exhaustion case.
Anyway, that’s it for this week! I just thought I would change it up. Certainly something to think about.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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