This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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April 12, 2021
STOCKS – NVDA, AMD, INTC, XBI
MACRO – SPY, IEF, VVIX
- Midday: Volatility Rises As Biotech Falters
- Morning Note – Options Market Does Not Support Higher Stock Prices
- T.W.A: The Week Of April 12 Is Likely To Be Harder For Stocks
- Midday Note- Setting Up For A Rug Pull
- Live Webcast Tomorrow At NOON
- Morning Note – Here To Pump You Up
Stocks finished the day flat, with volume levels that continue to underwhelm. The S&P 500 finished the day at 4,128, and the Qs finished around $336.70. But what was kind of surprising, despite a very tight trading range, was the CBOE VIX Volatility Index, which rose for the third day in a row. We need to take note of this because it typically proceeds a move higher in the VIX index, which we know has an inverse relationship with the S&P 500.
Additionally, our risk-on indicator, the XBI, continues to trade badly. The ETF closed today, just above support, with rising volume and falling RSI. This tells me the ETF is likely going lower, which is likely to be bad news for the equity market’s overall health.
10 Year (IEF)
Meanwhile, the 10-Years look as though it is getting ready to take its next major leg higher, with the potential to push towards 1.95%.
NVIDIA had a good day, though, rising by 5.6% after it said that first-quarter revenue was tracking ahead of guidance and said it would begin to produce CPUs for the data center. The stock finally made it through $575, but I will be curious to see what happens. The deal for ARM is still dilutive to holders since it will give Softbank a huge stake in the stock. Additionally, the stock is already overbought, so the timing of this news doesn’t seem ideal. It probably means the stock will struggle to move higher from here.
Good news for NVIDIA can sometimes spell bad news for AMD, and bad news was the case today for AMD. AMD fell 5% today and moved below $80 again. I still think this stock trades sub $70. The trends still point lower.
Intel also got hit pretty hard today. The stock hit resistance near $69, and the NVIDIA news sent Intel sharply lower; I guess it was perfecting time. Intel needs to hold support at $65.40 because if it can’t, it will likely fall to $59.75.
Ok, have a good Tuesday; I won’t be around, but I will be back on Wednesday.
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